Guys what’s the likelihood of opening up international travel by September 2021? Especially Spain?
Without quarantines and other BS
According to my calculations it's about 45.998% +/- 0.0001. As you can tell by the confidence interval it's a very good calculation.
>>1925065>>1925069Pretty high. Keep in mind that, despite what some crazy rainlets over here say, most governments are chomping at the bit to bring the economy back online, so even if the 60% of immunizations isn't reached by this Summer, chances are the answer will be "eh, 20%'s good enough, go go go!"
>>1925065gonna be years dude. thats why im just going now
>>1925065>>1925077Not gonna happen. If governments were making these decisions based on whats safe then we'd all be flying already. Wether you think its some conspiracy shit or the sensationalist media finally reaching its ultimate conclusion and reporting anyone dieing ever as some massive wartime defeat, this IS the new normal now. Weve been told for nearly a year its just one more month, the vaccine was approved in my country a couple weeks ago and barely anyones been vaccinated and the government is bouncing between next summer or winter we MIGHT be back to normal. France says they wont be back to normal until next september at the earliest, this is WITH a vaccine.We've heard this all before and now the cycle has already begun again with a new strain disvovered that may well be resistant to the vaccine.>>1925143This guys right. This is our life now. Freedom is a memory to cherish, not something to look forward to again.
What the fuck is OPs pic?
>>1925148ALL signs point that they want to open up again as soon as they can... and you claim it's gonna go on for years?
>>1925065pretty likely, vaccine rollout should be complete by then
>>1925065Very low with the new variant that has just come out of the UK.
>>1925148>freedom is now a memorystfu i meant several years you rat. 2-3 desu
>>1925186then why haven't they opened yet? cases are down, deaths don't even make the news anymore. You're delusional. The world has had a vaccine for how many months now? And if this virus was as deadly as they say, that vaccine would have been shipped around the globe to save us. But it didn't. Why? Because russia made it, and for that reason the west didn't touch it and hardly even mentioned it. This has been about politics from the beginning, not about saving lives.>>1925155people that got facial paralysis after taking the vaccine
>>1925065>Especially Spain?spain will be open every summer
Decent. You'll need to be vaxxed though.
>>1925065I would've said summer a couple weeks ago, but with this new strain idk. Biden might shut down the US for a month or two because of this thing.
>>1926059Cases are down? LMAO they're the highest they've ever been.
/trv/ is an interesting case study in echo chambers. The amount if bizarre statements I see here that are painfully incorrect is astounding.
>>1926372All the mentally ill retards who would be cooming in ugly SEA hookers are now stuck in their country and are constantly shit posting in /trv/, it never used to be this bad
>>1926372Cope. We'll be extremely lucky if we're able to travel like normal by November next year.
Zero, 2nd strain is here so all of the vaccine that are coming out are utterly useless. We might not have normal travel for a decade.
>>1927779Troll or just really stupid? The current vaccines that are being rolled out are effective against the newer strains of covid. Everything depends on how fast people get vaxxed but its looking like late spring early summer will see an upswing in travel and a loosening of restrictions.
>>1925069Very unlikely, there are new strains now, I think 2021 is going to be worse than 2020.
>>1925194This, the fact is this illness has been around little over a year, nothing much is known, a 3 year old had a stroke due to covid this weekend, and the new strain is said to affect young people greatly. If this turns out to be true, things will get a litter harsher. I hope things get back to normal soon but the idea of getting back to precovid style travel by 2021 is not likely
>>1927995>The current vaccines that are being rolled out are effective against the newer strains of covid They MIGHT be, there is no proof of this yet
>>1927999>2021 is going to be worse than 2020.That's inconceivable. The herd immunity of people being infected for a year + daily vaccinations has to slow this virus down.
>>1928005>Herd immunityYou don't have a clue
>>1928007He means that 2020 a year of weak people being infected and dying from covid is obviously going to be worse than 2021 where there's a vaccine being distributed and he's not wrong
>>1928005It’s well known by now there is no herd immunity from this virus.
This will be the decade of the new normal, this virus is way too strong.
>>1927779>>1928001There's a lot of unknowns so no one can confirm or deny int'l travel in 2021, but right now it looks like the new strains of Coronavirus are a lot more contagious, but they're not any more deadly and the pfizer/moderna etc vaccines that are already developed will defend against them. Even if the vaccines are not as effective they are still supposed to be 75% effective VS 90% which isn't bad.
>>1928016>but they're not any more deadlyNo one knows this yet either
>>1925065Extremely unlikely. In order to accurately predict what the future holds regarding COVID-19, you need to think of it as a hoax intended to fundamentally change society forever.
>>1928033I wonder why people living in war torn zones who saw their mothers get brutally murdered right in front of them they are expected to put up with it, but once a first worlder gets threatened with the slightest inconvenience they cry conspiracy, hoax and jews.I agree with you that it's very unlikely though, too many pozz-happy trannies out there claiming their disgusting bugchasing fetish is completely harmless.
>>1928033This, just try and picture other things back to normal, can you picture a hockey game for example with a stadium full of fans no masks and no distancing? Concerts? If no then air travel no. The Philippines expects to take 5 years to vaccinate the population, so until all countries have vaccinated significant portions of their populace I don’t foresee travel returning to a precovid state
>>1928051I have never claimed conspiracy or hoax. I'm claiming need to think of it as a hoax. Also, I don't know what 'slight inconvenience' you're talking about. It's pretty ironic you're bringing up the third world when the UN has already admitted to huge rise in starvation across the third world as a direct result of lockdowns. Have you forgotten that we're living in a globalized world?
>>1925065most first world cunts will be open, thirdies will take ages to roll out vaccines but will probably open anyway for that tourism money
>>1928005they're going to keep tacking superpowers onto the memflu that has an insanely low death rate but has fudged statistics. do you remember when you were a kid playing action figures with your friend and your guy would utterly destroy your friends, but then his friend would activate his superpower to reverse the situation and destroy you, BUT WAIT, you activated YOUR secret superpower to destroy HIM. that's covid, if you think we're actually going back to normal you're a fucking retard.
>>1927696Fake numbers faggot.
>>1928007Neither do you.
>>1929614Go back, newfag.
Most EU countries will start to vaccinate using the first vaccine (Pfizer/BioNtech) in autumn of 2021.They have barely begun the vaccination of doctors, this shit will take a while. If we get to any semblance of normality in the EU by next Xmas I will consider it a miracle.
>>1929638I was referring to the vaccination of general population' until then it will be doctors, then very old people, regular people without any serious illness will have access to vaccines in like half a year best case scenario
>>1929638>we need to vaccinate everyone and eradicate every last bacterium before things can be back to normalnot how it works>>1926382Who the fuck is "we"? The majority of the UK will be vaxxed by next summer
>>1928135>I don't know what 'slight inconvenience' you're talking aboutWearing a mask, as in >>1929633>the UN has already admitted to huge rise in starvation across the third world as a direct result of lockdownsI never said I supported lockdowns, they're too excessive. Proper respirator usage (or at least a surgical mask that's pretty bad but better than nothing) is sensible enough.
>>1928000>a 3 year old had a stroke due to covid this weekendliterally one case; there is not a single other example of this happening. One fat American toddler had a stroke so we need to shut the world down for the next decade? Not how it works. >>1925194the """"new variant""" """"from the UK""" doesn't change anything with regards to vaccination.
>>1929646But anon, several suicide cases have been discovered to have covid after their autopsies. Clearly, the virus causes suicide.
No one want to point out we've never had a vaccine for a coronavirus ever and why that is? Or the implications of what we could eliminate if we could? Look there's conspiracies and there's pragmatism. On top of that, there's so much logical inconsistency surrounding both "sides" of this thing. Look Occam's Razor:>they made a vaccine that is riskier than usual due to time constraints>it will only be partially effective due the RNA of the virus>best case scenario is that we eliminate the most transmissible and most fatal strains (current) and just deal with the othersThese alone point to no travel for a while. The leaked memo from the CDC stated 12-18 months MINIMUM, this was back in April I believe.
>>1929670>12-18 months minimum>From April of this year.Anon, have you forgot how to count?
>>1928471>And then it stoppedLiteral 2012-tier thinking.
>>1929688Chekd but whats your point? I said travel for a while and april is still 4 months away. Besides that is the minimum, which is just going to be a mass scale phase 1 reopening. And, if you've ever worked in government then you know to always expect the maximum of the minimum at the very least.
>>1929643I know its not how it works anon, thats why I was saying about when vaccinations for regular people will begin to be available, and in most EU thats autumn, actually they arent making any predictions so far there are just some stages being described, I know it will be enough to stop the spread if like 60% vaccination is reached
>>1929670Well first of all, we made vaccines for SARS and MERS but they never went past the first few trials because the disease died out. Second, we have feline coronavirus vaccines. Thirdly, there was never a need to make a widespread coronavirus vaccine for human use until this point in history. It's not some big conspiracy.
>>1929809Government incompetence is not a conspiracy nor is viral instability. Time will prove one us right I guess. I'd rather hope for the best and prepare for the worst than prepare for the best. 2021 is the year of the roadtrip.
>>1925186Sweden is open , their death numbers are bit higher but they are hardly collapsing
>>1928022I live in london where this new strain startedI know like 2 people have got it and neither of them had any symptomps , it was caught by the mandatory tests we had to do to go home from university for christmas
>>1925065High desu. If the vaccines Work, Most restrictions will be gone around September+
>>1925065>Guys what’s the likelihood of opening up international travel by September 2021? Especially Spain?Things aren't looking too good for the EU right now. They failed to purchase large amounts of Biontech+Moderna vaccines. They ordered massive amounts of Sanofi (failed) and AstraZeneca (will not get approved until April). Janssen, Novavax and Curevac will get approval by summer. So you will have less than 6 months to vaccinate 350 million people to reach herd immunity? I think that's not going to happen. Most likely thing to happen is we enter another lockdown in autumn/winter 2021.
highly likely 2021 will be even worse than 2020, you could try roadtrips
>>1925148>>1925070In the presidential debates even Biden and Kamala said they wouldn't take the vaccine as soon as it became available.......new york governor Cuomo said that they should have postponed the vaccination plans until after Biden took office......https://youtu.be/w-nINpmLC6g"Experts" have already said it's not going away and will be like the yearly flu. My guess is that broke state and city governments want to finally drive their state into the ground and get a federal government bailout. The other incentive is that after this, flu shots and covid shots will be mandatory in the future for travel or work.
>>1925065Never. This board is obsolete.
Anyone else nervous of the explosion in travel prices when things finally stabilize? We'll never be able to go anywhere again
>>1934813This is another 50/50 thing, On the one hand , companies want to make up all the money lost in 2020 so they could jack up the prices, but on the other hand after nearly a year of people not traveling and being "scared straight" by gov's not to travel, I dont think majority of the population is looking to head to thailand or xyz country anymore when all these lockdowns/restrictions seem to change daily/weekly at gov's will. I think 2021 will be bigger for domestic travel /roadtrips again.
Will I be let into Spain if I am vaccinated? Like right now? Like next month?
>>1925065I would expect that we will be dealing with coronavirus well into the decade. I doubt you will be traveling much in the next 5 years.reminder also that the vaccine is not proven to prevent transmission, so even if you are vaccinated that might not be enough of a hurdle to clear for international travel.
>>1925077>most governments are chomping at the bit to bring the economy back onlineLaughable. Most govts are chomping at the bit to lock down. Also these people, most people, aren't travel focused like those of us on board. They think New Zealand's had a harm free outcome because they're locked up but normal at home. Hardly anyone gives a thought to the tourism and travel industry that was destroyed for that to happen. To be fair I may be biased since I'm in Aus but all we ever hear is safety, safety, safety. No politician gives a shit about anything but keeping their job. And that means ruining everything in the interest of safety since that's what's popular.
>>1934813Not nervous but I will happen, any big event takes years for the airline industry to recover. After 9/11 traffic didn't resume to pre 9/11 levels until 2008
>>1925065You can travel to Spain if you have a valid recent (48hrs) negative Covid-19 test on you.
>>1925065Absolutely zero.By September we will only have most people vaccinated and then we have to see if vaccines work. Keep in mind there are no multiple news strains beginning to circulate.WHO has also issued a statement saying that things will not be back to normal for all of 2021.
>>1938922social unrest is beginning to solidify. I don't think karen can keep up the "just wear the mask" meme anymore. even the sheep are losing interest in the narrative.
>>1938922>WHOFuck those CCP owned shills>>1938935I dont even care if I have to wear a mask at football games for the next little while, I just don't want to have to self-quarantine if I wanna visit a country in the Fall. Supposedly my country is ramping up vaccinations to have them all done for those who sign up by September/October so im just hoping I can get to Europe for October/November without any major problems.
Anons, where can I find or ask info about travel restrictions? I want to visit CZ with my friend on motorcycles, is it realistic this summer?
>>1939069No one will tell you what is and isn't realistic, countries change their policies on a whim. We were supposed to have italian slopes open after New Year, suddenly they closed them till April. For current info visit the travel section of you government's website.
>>1934813I dont think the prices will explode because airlines and hotels will raise the price but instead people will just want to get out and things will just be booked up with limited need for discounts.Isnt that currently happening for places that are already open and allowing americans?
>>1936309learn to googleYou can if you're from Schengen area ,Australia, China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore and Thailand. UK is not allowed.Just need to have a negative result within 72 hours of arrival.
>>1925186it will go on indefinitely>lol don't fall for republican fear mongering about coronavirus!>oh shit, this is le serious! just two weeks to flatten the curve>aw shit two more weeks sorry>two more weeks sorry>two more weeks sorry>two more months sorry>just until there's a vaccine>vaccine is created at record pace>OH WOOPS, SORRY! THE VACCINE WON'T STOP YOU FROM GETTING IT (why even take it??)>you're not immune after having it!>two more seasons, please, the boomers are dying!>oh woops, not only is covid 19 going to recirculate indefinitely forever, now there's covid 21!! scary right?!>just two more years, you believe in science, right anon?!you all got fucking played, and nobody will ever admit they were wrong because they're too smug, too prideful, they "believe the science". they feel "so, so very bad :(" for all of those dead boomers despite the fact during normal times they complain about muh climate and overpopulation. again, everybody got fucking played, we are not going back to normal. you're naive as fuck if you believe we are.
>>1925065you're not traveling again until summer 2022 at the earliest
>>1939920Call me back in July 2021, and see how it goes.
>>1938776Absolutely clueless.We'll be back to normal by Easter. Travel as normal in the summer. There may be a few countries lagging behind with the vaccinations but they will be exceptions.
COVID vaccine passport will be normalized by Summer and will be sufficient to travel without quarantines and the likes.