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Is /sci team "one box" or team "two boxes"?
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>>13889770
>what decision should you make in a scenario that postulates that no decisions are possible
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Sodomize the alien then force him to give me the $1,000,000
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Game Theorists are such hacks.
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Who the fuck cares about a million dollars? I ask the alien to tell me some physics and math shit beyond the human state of the art and I let him play minecraft on my computer in return, then later I go publish my newfound findings and win some academic awards, then coast for the rest of my live pretending to have a big fucking brain and doing "research"
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>>13889770
>What do you?
Yes.
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>>13889770
I take the closed box only. I wipe my ass with $1000 bucks, but 1 mil? Give me.
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>>13889770
Hes always correct therefore he knows that I will pick one box
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if the being is always correct then i only pick the closed box and walk away with a cool 1 million
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>>13889770
He is full of shit. I take both of the boxes.
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>>13889866
>gets punished for his greed
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Given that he's been right 999 times in a row, I take the million. It's more likely he's God or something and can edit the past than to hit a series of events with a 0.5^999 likelihood (this is very small)
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>>13889770
So I have a million guaranteed if I pick B, and stand to gain at most an insigficant fraction over that base some, or to lose my million, if I try any other option if I don't exercise perfect judgment, and possibly even if I do. This is one of those problems that are only hard if you're a fucking autist.
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>>13889901
it can't be this simple, no ...
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>>13889770
The alien is bluffing. Grab both boxes.

- This post was made by the high EQ gang.
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>>13889974
You grab both boxes. The alien knew you would and the bigger box is empty.
Enjoy your $1000 I suppose
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>>13889770
you have two choices
1 - You grab one box and get 1 mil
2 - You grab both and get 1,000

Obviously pick 1 as it gets you the most return.
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>>13889770
Those who choose one box get $1,000,000 and those who don't get $1,000. End of discussion.
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>>13889770
Id rather have a chance at a million than a guaranteed 1000
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>>13889770
So if he is always right, and I do have all the information present here, you will always gain 1 million by picking only B, because the prediction will be correct and thus it'd have the million
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>>13890183
>Id rather have a chance
If you grab both boxes you still have a chance at the 1mi plus the guraranteed 1k
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>>13890197
It all depends on how he knows what you're gonna pick. The bland interpretation is that he knows because the universe of the problem is deterministic, so your choice is predetermined; in that case, the obvious "choice" is B. The more interesting interpretation is that he only thinks he knows, because you're both perfectly rational players in a game, and there is only one rational choice. Now, if you accept the premise that he knows what you're gonna do, the rational choice is B. Since he knows you're rational, he thinks you'll go with B, and thus the rational thing now is to fool him by taking both; but he, being perfectly rational, will have foreseen it, and knows that you will have foreseen his foreseeing, forcing you back to B, which you can exploit by taking both, but he will have foreseen that, too... you see where this is going.
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>>13890245
I guess what I'm saying can be sumned up like this: for any finite chain of reasoning, one party can always one-up the other by taking it one step further, so the outcome is indeterminate unless one side gives in to imperfect rationality.
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>>13889770
Flip a coin
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>>13889770
Obviously take only the one million because I wasn’t paying enough attention to learn I could have taken both boxes and just lunged, snatched, and booked it when I heard there was a box full of a million dollars
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I'm a one boxer
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whats the catch here
u take a box with 1 million
duh
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>>13889770
Walk away. These fancy estimates don't account for the curveballs.
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>>13890245
>The more interesting interpretation is that he only thinks he knows

The most interesting interpretation is that the being is lying to you. Assuming you have no reason to believe he's any more likely to be telling the truth than lying, the probability of him lying is 50%.

So your three options are:
1. Take just the $1k box. Easy $1k, no chance involved.
2. Take just the $1m box. Since he might be lying you have only a 50% chance of getting $1m, or a $500k expected value.
3. Take both boxes. 50% chance to get $1k if he's truthful and 50% chance to get $1.001 m if he's lying. The expected value for this is $501k.

Therefore you should always take both boxes unless you have reason to believe the being is truthful.
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>>13890657
>The most interesting interpretation is that the being is lying to you
No, it isn't. Not even reading your post.
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>>13890657
Actually I think this is way more complicated than I realized, since there are two ways the being can be lying.

He can be lying about his ability to predict the future (!A), and he can also be lying about his behavior (!B). If we assume that both have a 50% probability then your options are:
1. Take just the $1k box. Easy $1k, no chance involved.
2. Take just the $1m box.
E(A & B) = 0.25 * $1m = $250k
E(!A) = 0.5 * (0.5 * $1m + 0.5 * $0) = $250k
E(A & !B) = 0.25 * $0 = $0
E = $500k
3. Take both boxes.
E(A & B) = 0.25 * $1k = $250
E(!A) = 0.5 * (0.5 * $1m + 0.5 * $0) = $250k
E(A & !B) = 0.25 * $1.001m = $250.25k
E = $500.5k

So still best option is still to take both.
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>>13890743
but he knows you are taking both so knows how to fuck you. You have to use a coin flip or rng to make the decision.
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>>13889770
1k is almost nothing, just work lol. 1M is a life changing amount of money. fuck both boxes, give me the second one



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