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>Ukraine’s recent victories expose even more systemic failures.

https://www.vox.com/2022/9/18/23359326/russia-military-failures-ukraine

Ukraine’s continuing rout of Russian forces in the east has exposed fundamental problems within the Russian military, including deficiencies and power struggles in its command structure and gaps in intelligence gathering and processing. Though Russia’s early failures and difficulty recruiting enough soldiers for the front line have been clear for months, the latest operation shows the depth of the disarray and stasis in Russia’s armed forces.

Ukraine’s lightning strike operation in the Kharkiv region demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s ability to take advantage of those deficiencies to recapture not just territory, but strategically important transport and resupply hubs for the Russian military’s eastern front. Although the war is far from over, and Russia still controls around 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, the Kharkiv operation provided a strategic and moral win for Ukraine, and revealed a Russian military seemingly unable — or unwilling — to learn from its previous errors.

Fighting continues in southern Ukraine near Kherson and in the Donbas, where Russia had sent its more experienced soldiers prior to the Kharkiv blitz. While it’s impossible to predict how the fighting will play out there, Ukraine’s ability to take the battlefield initiative and exploit Russian weaknesses — as well as materiel, financial, and intelligence support from Western countries — put Ukraine’s military in a stronger position.
>>
Since the beginning of the war, Russian failures — its inability to achieve its initial goal of a short, surgical operation to remove Ukrainian leadership, its withdrawal from Kyiv and reorientation toward the south in the spring, and numerous tactical blunders — have been surprising. Earlier, devastating campaigns in Syria and Chechnya, as well as sophisticated military doctrine and strategic shows of force, successfully burnished the Russian military’s image, but in a large-scale ground war against a well-equipped and organized adversary, that same organization is buckling under serious miscalculations and a chaotic military structure.

Strikingly, the Ukrainian military’s recent victories have even forced the Russian media to acknowledge that “there are setbacks,” Rita Konaev, deputy director of analysis at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told Vox.

“Of course, there’s still a message of, ‘We will stay in it until we reach our goals,’ although the goals continue to evolve and shift and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has demonstrated that he is able to re-articulate the goals to fit the changing reality on the ground without suffering much,” she said. “He doesn’t have to comply with reality” when it comes to his messaging on Ukraine, she continued.

>The Russian military’s command structure is a mess

While neither Russia nor Ukraine disclose official military death tolls, the losses on each side are likely in the tens of thousands. An August estimate from the US Department of Defense put Russian battlefield injuries and deaths at “70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months,” undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl said. The death toll specifically was estimated to be around 20,000 — 15,000 of which were regular troops, and about 5,000 private mercenaries like those from the Wagner Group, the New York Times’s Helene Cooper reported at the time.
>>
In the past week, reporting on Russian efforts to recruit soldiers both for regular units and for the Wagner Group has shown the military’s difficulty in attracting qualified troops to fight in Ukraine. A New York Times piece by Christiaan Triebert studied a leaked video of a man resembling Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Putin’s and long rumored to be Wagner’s head, trying to recruit shock troops at a penal colony in Yoshkar-Ola, about 400 miles east of the Russian capital of Moscow. The man in the video promises prisoners their freedom in exchange for a six-month tour of duty in Ukraine; while it’s unclear when the video was filmed, experts assess it was made sometime in the past three months, indicating that the recruitment efforts are not new.

“To turn somebody who is a convicted felon with, as far as we know, no real military — or at least combat — experience, to marshal hundreds of thousands of men to the front line of what is arguably one of the most important wars in Russia’s modern history, tells you something about the mentality in the Kremlin right now,” Candace Rondeaux, the director of Future Frontlines at the New America think tank, told the Times.

It’s also an indication of the Kremlin’s continuing desire to shield the Russian people from the realities of the war, although the armed forces are also trying to bring in volunteers from the civilian population — touting high wages and leaning heavily on patriotism and hyper-masculine posturing to do so, Reuters reported Sunday.

Even if the Russian armed forces somehow solve the recruitment problem, the intertwined issues of leadership and training remain. “We’ve seen such high levels of Russian officer casualties, and the officers coming are even less experienced,” Mason Clark, the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, told Vox.
>>
“We’ve seen cadets rushed out of Russian military educational institutions early and sent to the front lines, and the replacements are not getting the full training that they would if the Kremlin pursued large-scale mobilization. It’s just pushing forward largely unfit personnel to replace initial losses.”

That played out in the Kharkiv offensive in early September, when Russian forces fled in the face of oncoming Ukrainian troops, as opposed to a planned, orderly withdrawal, John Spencer, the chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum, told Vox. “Organizationally, it means they don’t even have the capability to do a measured withdrawal,” he said. Though the units that fled around Kharkiv aren’t representative of the whole Russian military, their strategy — or lack thereof — does point toward a potentially force-wide problem that can play to Ukraine’s advantage.

“Ukrainians have been attacking Russian sources of power — their ammunition supply, their command and control networks — because they don’t have a flexible command and control network,” Spencer said. “So if you take out their control cells and their generals, it weakens the enemy.”

There’s also a political element to the disarray in leadership, Konaev said. Not only do the armed forces lack qualified leaders because they’re being taken out on the battlefield, they’re also “being purged continuously from within,” she told Vox. “We’ve seen a lot of turnover in who has the military districts, who’s the head of the airborne forces, the VDV — they’re elite forces — the commander of the Black Sea fleets, and a bunch of junior commanders have all been continuously replaced,” causing a lack of “institutional knowledge, lack of trust, not enough time to prove any sort of an independent concept of how they would reorient and regroup or perform better — there’s not enough time to implement it.”
>>
The culture of fear is also “likely further impeding the willingness [of commanders] to take risks or plot effective operations,” Clark said, making a tactical shift next to impossible.

So while Ukraine is attacking Russia’s command structure on the battlefield, the Kremlin and personal politicking at the highest levels are doing plenty to push that process along.

“A lot of this starts with the problems at the top,” Konaev said. “There’s a bit of a tension between vying for power and trying to avoid responsibility” for Russia’s failures on the battlefield. “So you always have these levels of command who want more leadership and prestige and power, but at the same time, nobody wants to be the last one standing, caught responsible for all of these failures.”

>The challenges of intelligence collection are amplified

Another major area of weakness is Russia’s reconnaissance capabilities, which leaves Russian forces vulnerable and has also caused havoc on the front line, as Clark told Vox. After the fast and continued successes of the Kharkiv offensive, he said, “there’s been a lot of exaggerated reports from Russian sources of imminent Ukrainian attacks all along the line” — a testament to the demoralizing nature of the attack, but also units’ inability to get good information.

Part of Russia’s challenges with intelligence collection are apparently due to the heavy losses that some of its elite teams — including reconnaissance units — have suffered due to poor planning and lack of heavy armored support, according to a recent report from the Congressional Research Service. Ukraine has also destroyed and captured Russian surveillance drones like the Orlan-10, according to reporting from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Moscow has reportedly lost 918 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the war, both surveillance and attack varieties, according to the Kyiv Independent and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
>>
But it’s not just a problem of collecting intelligence, Konaev told Vox; intelligence analysis and dissemination on the Russian side also suffer from disorganization, mistrust, fear, and failure of command and control, leading to “institutional incapacitation.” It’s a fundamental question of “who is in charge of the intelligence gathering, processing, and coordination, on which front, and are they speaking to each other,” she told Vox.

Adding to the confusion, Putin in May switched responsibility for intelligence gathering in Ukraine to the GRU, the military intelligence unit, after repeated failures on the part of the FSB, the state security services, prior to and in the early stages of the war. “There’s a lot of conflicting, and often rivaling, intelligence bodies and groups that are active there,” Konaev said. “And this multi-layered, disorganized, and incoherent approach to intelligence collection, analysis, and coordination has undermined them at every part of the war.”

“Intelligence is notoriously difficult to get right and to coordinate, especially when you have a country like Russia where the intelligence services have accumulated so much power,” Konaev explained. Intelligence services have significant influence at the political level, as well as “massive amounts of control over information that they can disclose or choose not to disclose, but at the same time, they still very much fear the consequences of disclosing something that might dissatisfy Putin.”

>Doctrine and practice are two different things

Ultimately, Russian military doctrine — the planning, systems, and strategy that are supposed to underpin how it conducts war — hasn’t been particularly effective in Ukraine. Hybrid warfare, a vaunted aspect of that doctrine, has broken down, to the extent that it was even used in this conflict. Russian military parades and shows of force aren’t the same as doing battle with an adversary.
>>
It also seems as though Russia is operating from a Soviet-era personnel playbook that doesn’t function in the current landscape.

“One of the hallmarks of the Russian, and before that the Soviet, system was they effectively designed around the fact that their baseline infantrymen were not as skilled as in the US or NATO, or, in World War II, the Axis powers,” Clark told Vox. “But the intent was that the officers were competent, and the overall operational minds were very effective, and they sort of played to their own strengths.” Under that logic, pushing inferior troops onto the battlefield would still be operationally useful because they’d be operating under strategically superior leadership executing a well-designed battle plan. “We’re not seeing that here,” he said.

That sense of stasis permeates the whole structure, top to bottom, with the “paralysis in the Kremlin’s decision-making,” since the spring, Clark said, resulting in a “Russian approach to the war [that] has not really changed since then,” to its own detriment.

It’s also unclear to what extent Russian war gaming, such as it is, has tested the pain points of its operational strategy. Though Russia is part of its own military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and conducted war games just this month, “the public war gaming that we see, that is essentially a show of force,” Konaev said. The covert war gaming — in which militaries are supposed to probe their own weaknesses and strengthen or otherwise compensate for those areas — are kept under wraps for a reason. If the Kremlin did conduct these kinds of stress tests, it’s not clear what lessons were learned, if any.
>>
“At a certain point, you can, in theory, understand a certain miscalculation,” Konaev told Vox. “Everyone, even much better-equipped, -trained, and -learned organizations like the US military make mistakes and make incorrect assumptions about their enemy, and miscalculate their levels of commitment and resistance. But the fact that [the Russians] have continuously made mistakes throughout the war that are of a very similar kind is unforgivable, from that standpoint.”

>How Ukraine got the upper hand against Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7INxfISGFs
>>
>>1096911
>Since the beginning of the war, Russian failures — its inability to achieve its initial goal of a short, surgical operation to remove Ukrainian leadership, its withdrawal from Kyiv and reorientation toward the south in the spring, and numerous tactical blunders — have been surprising
So what was Mariupol after that kyiv withdrawl. I'm getting mixed signals here they are inexperienced yet were able to trap a bunch of mutt mercs in the steel plant and kill commanders trying to escape from the city in MI-8's man lets look at the writer of this article and its
Ellen Ioanes
>graduated with honors from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism, and with a degree in religious studies from Davidson College.
Not even any background in military science or analysis. Holy shit shill all fields. For anyone that wants analysis I suggest Andrei Martyanov's blog.
>>
I think The Kremlin hasn't exercised so much authoritative action over the military since the cold war ended, so they are running their engine to warm up the machine that channels units on the small scale.
>>
>>1097013
>Mariupol
It still took them forever to take control of the city, not to mention they had to flatten most of it same as Sieverodonetsk.
Point is that the Russian military's performance overall was quite lackluster so far.
>>
>>1097518
The Russians also still took major loses even though it was a siege and they had completely encircled. And Russia ensured the west would support Ukraine after the war crimes the Russians committed there.
>>
>>1097533
I'm not a fan of either corrupt country.
And we're only supporting Ukraine because Hunter has a job there and it's a money laundering haven for federal US politicians.
>>
>>1097538
>Mum Hunter
Old and busted, we're talking about the Trump kids being prosecuted now.
>>
>>1097539
>Trump kids being prosecuted now.
Deny, deflect, distract.
Fuck off.
>>
>>1097538
Guess that's why Trump said he'd nuke Putin over it.
>>
>>1097551
But he was colluding with Russia. Why nuke his ally?
I'm very confused now.
>>
>>1097558
Same reason he fired the head of the FBI who basically won him the election by dredging up Hillary's e-mails a week before the vote.

Anything that makes him look like the badass he sells himself to his base as. Plus Russia isn't useful anymore, not providing anymore wikileaks and given the $2 billion he got from Saudi Arabia.
>>
>>1097570
Gonna need some meds with that reddit spacing.
>>
>>1097547
Says the guy attacking the president's kid.
>>
>>1097657
Sorry, I forgot the children of millionaire politicians are a protected class.
My bad.
>>
>>1097661
Then why are you defending Trump's kids?
>>
>>1097533
I think Kiev was the bigger support driver over Mariupol, but it doesn't really matter at this point
>>1097538
Fucking hell, Americans really think every conflict in the world revolves around them, huh?
>>
>>1097679
Just the Republicans
>>
>>1097679
>Fucking hell, Americans really think every conflict in the world revolves around them, huh?
Ukraine would have a severely limited defense without US support. But no one said it revolved around the US but you.
>>
>>1097538
Modern Ukraine is the result of a CIA coup of the democratically elected Ukrainian government.
We have a vested interest in keeping that country under our control
>>
>>1097797
Where do you people get this shit from?
>>
>>1097800
Are you fucking kidding here?
>>
>>1097801
No, I don't think he's just pretending to be retarded
>>1097800
The dignity revolution had heavy CIA involvement. Obama-era official had recordings leaked of her discussing who to place as the new leader of Ukraine
>>
>>1097800
>Muh Yoocraine was a vestal virgin until dirty old Russia touched her.
Many kekes.
>>
>>1097807
kek
>>
You guys don't get how Russia works
Minorities, criminals and various undesirables are not the last to the front. They are the first.
>>
>>1097823
I honestly assumed this is the way it was, because this is the way it should be.
>>
>>1097800
By having 20/20 vision rather than sand/sand. We fucking saw it happen, we've seen the actual, factual leaks.

It's the same shit you retards did in Iran, twice. CIA backed coup is the fucking Flea Flicker of American geopolitics. It used to be surprising and risky, but now everyone knows you're gonna do the fucking Flea Flicker. Look what happened in the Solomon Islands, look what happened in Khazakstan. You retards pull the same shit, and then after it's done, or as of late spectacularly failed, you have the gall to go "Who me?"

Fucking hell, the only ones more obvious than you in intentions are the Russians because they sit there spouting "Who me?" before they did anything so everyone knows months in advance that they're gonna do something, or the Chinese who do something but blame it on everyone else. "You! See!"

I wish the big three would nuke each other to death already.
>>
>>1097800
It's inconceivable to tankies that Ukraine just wants to separate from Russia and it has to be the CIA brainwashing the 40m+ population. country.
>>
>>1097800
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
https://mronline.org/2022/07/06/anatomy-of-a-coup/
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/06/04/how-and-why-the-u-s-government-perpetrated-the-2014-coup-in-ukraine/
>>
>>1097869
You just gave the full transcript of a call in which Nuland does not once suggest a coup, rather he's discussing with Pyatt who he'd prefer to see win. He's talking about influencing an election through media campaigns, not toppling the government of a country through a coup.

Again, if Russia had any problem with the new government, they would have taken care of it in 2014, when the largest force Ukraine could bare against them was about 40,000 soldiers.

And Russia isn't making any effort to "free the Ukrainian people" and restore the former government. Instead they are just taking their land and oil for themselves.
>>
>>1097890
More accurately, he's talking about countering Russian manipulation in the election.
>>
>>1097551
>Guess that's why Trump said he'd nuke Putin over it.
Making shit up again? Or did your thread die and you came to this one?
>>
>>1098616
>In a Monday morning interview with Fox Business’s Stuart Varney, Trump offered that if he was president right now, he’d threaten Vladimir Putin with nuclear war.
>“I listened to him constantly using the N-word, that’s the N-word, and he’s constantly using it: the nuclear word,” Trump said describing his talks with the Russian leader, while absolutely bizarrely suggesting “the N-word” refers to “nuclear.” “We say, ’Oh, he’s a nuclear power.’ But we’re a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, the most powerful machines ever built…. You should say, ‘Look, if you mention that word one more time, we’re going to send them over and we’ll be coasting back and forth, up and down your coast. You can’t let this tragedy continue. You can’t let these, these thousands of people die.”
>>
>>1097639
I've never used Reddit in my life. Do you mean punctuation and grammar? How low is your bar?
>>
>>1098676
Neocons holy shit.
>>
>>1097533
>Russia ensured the west would support Ukraine after the war crimes the Russians committed there.
Russia ensured the west would support Ukraine when they started assassinating journalists on our soil, created safe havens for hackers, and created a massive propaganda campaign to sow division and radicalize, uh, "sensitive types" in the west.
>>
>>1097639
DIAF, newtroon. "Reddit spacing" has never been a thing. Stop trying to make it a thing.
>>
>>1098787
So everything the west, namely the US, does to everyone else already?
>>
>>1098798
Prove the US has assassinated journalists in the past 10 years.
>>
>>1098798
Think the last time the US decided to annex one of its neighbor's territories through force was 1845.
>>
>>1098807

Does it count if the US didn't kill the journalist, but after discovering who ordered the killing, they continued to do business with them, selling them billions in military aid? Does it count if the current US president fist-bumped them?

Russia is worse, but the US has issues too.
>>
>>1098810
No it doesn't count because Biden had nothing to do with the killing. US Presidents are forced to fist bump horrible people all the time. (Ted Cruz for instance)
>>
>>1098807
>Has to specify the past ten years because they definitely assassinated journalists last decade
>>
>>1098809
So the bay of pigs, guadacanal, cuba, south america and the efforts in east asia to subjugate countries like japan, phillipines and china never happened ? Sounds like you have a selective memory on which type of annexation put in the memory hole.
>>
>>1099004
In none of those cases did America annex their land forcibly. Guantánamo bay would be the sole exception, ceded by the Spanish in 1898.
>>
>>1097797
Because the idea that a country with 40 Million inhabitants doesn't like its sovereignty being forcefully encroached is too outlandish a concept. Ukraine always has to be a proxy for Russia vs NATO in the pro Russian narrative.
>>
>>1099471
>Fascists and their sovereignty
Tiresome
>>
>>1099480
One of these countries is acting more like Nazi Germany than the other - the one annexing its neighbors through military force while declaring right to conquest based on an ethno-state.
>>
>>1099481
>Ethno-state
Are you for real here?
>>
>>1099487
He's literally declared all lands with ethnic Russians as rightfully his own - including Finland and Poland.
>>
wonder if putin will just nuke ukraine and then sue for peace on the premise that a nuclear wasteland will be easier to bargin with
also wonder if the current news is extremely overblown
I remember hearing the situation being in russia's favor a while ago
>>
>>1099492
Fake news media is all about Russia bad, Ukranazis good
Of course they won't show the truth of Russia BTFOing the nazis
>>
>>1099506
Russia invaded another country to take its land and thus is the villain of the story regardless of how corrupt the victim maybe. The only media with the audacity to ignore that simple fact is Putin controlled.
>>
>>1099508
Seethe more nazi apologist, your nazi shithole will soon be nuked.
>>
>>1099513
Why are you talking about the Russians, aka the Nazis?
>>
>>1099480
Kek so we're to muh nazis now?
I'll tell you what's tiresome, the fact that pro russian posters don't have the decency to admit that all this war is about is Russia's territorial interests. You really think Putin cares about the people in the Donbass? You think anyone in charge genuinely believes all Ukies are Nazis?
>>1099492
And risk losing the last few allies/neutral nations he has? I doubt it. Besides in terms of nuclear doctrine you'd have to stretch some definitions to justify the use of nukes in Ukraine.
>wonder if the current news is extremely overblown
It always is, obviously. But Russia hasn't been doing good for a while, otherwise they wouldn't be scrambling to annex the territories they still have and finally call for mobilization after scraping together convicts and mercenaries.
>>1099506
How's 1st guards tank doing these days?
>>
>>1099596
>good boys ukies aren't nazis at all
If something looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and think that Duck Duckovenko was a national hero, they are likely to be a ducks themselves.
>>
>>1099600
Only one of these countries is invading to expand their country, like actual Nazis.
>>
>>1099600
No I see your logic. Since pre-war Russian propaganda was adamant about how only a minority of Banderovtsi would oppose them and every good Ukranian citizen is pro Russian. So now that this turned out to be a huge miscalculation the logical conclusion is to claim that all Ukrainians are Nazis.
Well if the real goal of the invasion is to denazify Ukraine then I'm sorry to tell you that Russia has been way closer to their objective in mid March then they have been ever since. So I'm not quite sure if that even helps your narrative.
>>
We most fight bravely ontill the death of the last Ukrainian military preschooler, it is are destany our duty as every American to send wepion to youkran.And not complain as we get shit fàced drunk watching Russian tanks explode becous it's the will of god .
>>
>>1099602
>Hitler was an artist
>therefore all artists are Hitlers
>>
>>1098807
There is a long sentence waiting for Julian Assange, who is Australian. US silences journalists differently.
>>
This whole conflict is a spotlight on us vs them politics and how pathetic it makes everyone look.
>>
Damn those Americans. Always calling whoever they don't like a nazi, because they are stuck in 1945. Why are they so obsessed with ww2. And also, you are acting like war was not a thing before Hitler.
>>
>>1099972
To be fair it doesn’t sound as good if you’re calling someone a real Kublai Khan.
>>
>>1099882
>>1099972
>because they are stuck in 1945. Why are they so obsessed with ww2.
As opposed to the country demanding a buffer state between itself and Germany, eating its neighbors like no European nation has done since Nazi Germany was a thing, and declaring that any nation that contains people of a certain skin tone its own territory by right of race.



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