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08/21/20New boards added: /vrpg/, /vmg/, /vst/ and /vm/
05/04/17New trial board added: /bant/ - International/Random
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Now that we are up to a launch per week, two fully reusable launch platforms are about to enter service and the martian/lunar transportation system is about to start its flight tests its time to have a thread that discusses space transportation infrastructure and transportation vehicles.

>since no one created a new thread you're stuck with this picture
>>
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The 5 stages of Kessler Syndrome denial:

1. It's a hoax, Kessler? You serious dude? If you're worried about that you don't know SHIT about science, like read the prospectus bro, it says right there it's not a problem, they wouldn't LIE in a PROSPECTUS would they?

2. Ok it exists but it's not because of THIS megalomaniac rapey rape bro managed, blockchain NFT SPAC IOT tensorflow RNN deep learning space launch startup, actually it's CHOINA and the slant-eyed CHOINAMAN

3. Ok it exists and sure, maybe in fact it's entirely because of this MRRBMBNSITRDLSLS, but actually it's NBD, one day it will just disappear

4. Ok look, it might be a big deal and it's not going away but the cure is worse than the disease, like broooo what if we have to make our commodities futures bets the normal way instead of using a plague of private football satellites to gather real time intel on crop dusters and oil tanks, broooo this is class warfare also don't forget CHOINA

5. We're fucked but hey it's not like space is good for anything anyway

Also, reminder that Chelsea Manning is an American hero and tony stark is a literal cuckold
>>
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>>1795763
>Making a new thread when the old one hits bump limit
>On /n/
Lurk moar
>>
When are we gonna get a space elevator to the moon?
>>
>>1795980
That is not possible. A space elevator needs to go to a point that is fixed relative to the surface. The moon orbits the earth.
>>
>>1795980
Baby steps, you have to recover all that """"lost"""" technology and figure out a way to pass the van alan radiation belts that somehow were stopped by sheet metal and foil.
>>
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Moonslag,,,1000tons,stringoes tohook,,like biketire on abug,,snatchit tospace,,,catch incomeing weighto maintain orbit.
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>>1795996
jeto,,,platform 1090mph,elevator tomoon.
>>
>>1795996
>maglev monorail around the equator
>attach tether from train to the moon
>train gets pulled along track at 1000 mph as earth rotates
>MOON TRAIN

Maybe you could generate electricity that way.
>>
>>1795763
>>1795769
>>1796120
>>1796121
So you redditniggers are already trying to destroy this general because you destroyed /sfg/?
>>
>>1796238
>she doesn't know bacon
gb2gaia
>>
>>1795763

Until some new science comes up, space transportation will have absurd costs and pollution levels. You cannot defeat the laws of physics - at least currently known physics. A few thousands lbs to be sent in SPAAAAACE cost literal thousands bucks per ounce.
>>
>>1796238
You need to lurk at least a year before posting
>>
B7 presumably repaired and is getting rolled back to the launch site early tomorrow morning. SPMTs configured for booster move, and crane has load spreader attached.
>>
>>1795763
What is this supposed to be? A space ladder?
>>
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>>1797001
B7 crushed transfer tube.
>>
>>1796122
blimptrain 2
>>
>>1797016
Shit, what happened there, did Elon have an early release?
>>
>>1795763
/qa/ lost
>>
Ship 24 fully stacked. First raptor 2 ship, likely the ship for the orbital test. I believe it also has a cargo door / starlink dispenser.
>>
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>>1798007
Let me guess, you just wanted to bump the thread?
>>
My shitty OC for a concept that combines ideas from the SpaceX Starship and Venture Star.

My goal is to get 500 metric tons to LEO in a 10m x 10m x 50m payload bay.
>>
>>1798231
>venturestar
Why?
>>
>>1798023
Let me guess you just wanted to post a 3 week old image.
>>
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In just 2 weeks
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Booster 7 finishing up
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>>1798298
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>>1798249

What's wrong about Venture Star?
>>
>>1798249

Linear aerospace engines were a tremendous technological breakthrough that were abandoned before they could see their true potential.

Liquid hydrogen remains an absolute bitch to contain in propellant tanks but liquid methane largely eliminates these issues while burning almost as cleanly as hydrogen. Methane also has the unique perk of being able to share a bulkhead with an adjacent liquid oxygen tank.

Propane may have similar benefits but only if burned oxidizer-rich.
>>
>>1798840

*linear aerospike

fuck autocorrect
>>
Linear aerospike may very well be better, but I don't think anyone wants to risk sinking billions of dollars in R&D into them to find out. So long as we stick with cylindrical vehicles round engines will continue to dominate. Easier to make a good reliable engine and make lots of copies of it.

Though I believe 1 startup is planning to use round aerospikes on their rocket.
>>
>https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1524386115511324672
BE-4 looking pretty good.
>>
>>1798444
Single stage.
There is no reasons to go single stage on Earth due to rocket
Single stage = 1% payload.
Double stage = 4% payload
This means single stage is 4 times larger and expensive comparing to double stage.
If even possible. Because single stage designs requires very high mass effeciency, if it is slightly less than ideal you may end with no payload at all, very little margin.
>>
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Saw a good pasta on some other board the other day on how the lunar gateway/lunar exploration will be the starting point for humans to settle the entire local system thru the use of ISRU, orbital fuel depots, lagrange points and novel hybrid fusion afterburner drives - And ultimately massive fucking space stations and cities on mars and what have you

Didn't save said pasta unfortunately but it was a neat summary on what the rest of this century might have in store yet if we don't end up glassing each other before that point
>>
God i hope we see warp drives come to fruition

A wormhole drive would be fine, too
>>
>>1798909

That's why you slap some boosters on the side.
>>
>>1798444
>>1798840
>linear aerospike
were garbage dead end tech. Venturestar was a waste of thought hours
>>
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>>1798914
If it wasn't the gateway they have planned I would agree
>>
>>1798983
>roscosmos
i hope someone else has plans to replace that module
>>
Axiom ordered a bunch of Canadarm 3 parts for their station modules. The power data grapple fixtures are backwards compatible with the ISS arm. They will likely eventually buy the same arm the lunar gateway is getting.
>>
>>1798973

The whole reason for the idea is to have an engine that can maintain thrust efficiency from sea level all the way up to orbit. Conventional bell-nozzle engines cannot do that.
>>
>>1799040
Its literally just a soyuz port, its unnecessary
>>
Engine installation stand on the move. And booster supported by the crane. Engine install could be imminent.
>>
>>1799218
or not.
>>
SN16 decapitated in the widebay.
>>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdRYthkSwvI
>>
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>>1799144
SSTO is a retarded meme
>>
New Starbase tour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ux6B3bvO0w
>>
>>1800243
At the pace of that tour it will probably be an 8 part series.
>>
>>1800243
He didn't even try wtf
>>
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Fucking astra acting like its something
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The first weather forecast for the #AtlasV #Starliner #OFT2 mission was issued by the
@SLDelta45
this morning. The outlook for Thursday's 6:54pmEDT (2254 UTC) launch from Cape Canaveral is 70% GO
>>
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Mega bay coming along, will accomodate 10-12 workstations rather than 2-3 of high bay. Also modestly taller (30')

Will use ullage gas for small maneuvers rather than hot gas thrusters. Elon realized this was the way to go during a previous Tim Dodd interview.

B7 is better and simpler than B4 and B5. Upgraded grid fins and chines.

The chines are 120° offset (aimed more down than flat). It helps balance the booster in reentry so it comes in flatter, and increases the ability to capture the air and get more resistance. These chines are primitive, will be improved

why using grid fins rather than something more traditional? For now, F9 experience. Also, good stability of performance in sub through hypersonic regimes. Low motor power requirements, especially compared to flaps. But perhaps could do better in future. Also, even with grid fins, may get away with just 2? Not more than 3 in the long run, with the third small, if they do stick with grid fins.

Back in early F9 days they tried doing boostback with no grid fins? Too unstable. But you don't need BIG control surfaces to compensate.

There's a dispenser door on S24. Elon: it's not going to blow anyone's mind. Tim: you'd be surprised. Elon: If the mechanisms inside jam up, that'll be pretty embarrassing. Joe: It's like an industrial pallet-stacker.

Next launch will be full orbital, not this quasi-orbital plan from earlier… but there was like a 30m/s difference so eh.

Not high confidence that first flight will work.

The tiles will expand to fill in the gaps. Shingling them would be excessively complicated… they think.
>>
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>>1800475
They learned everything they could from the sub-orbital hops they've already done. S20 is done.

The starship orbital stack is going to come off the pad very fast. Should have thrust-to-weight ratio of 1.4+ at takeoff. Reusable vehicles care more about fuel efficiency and therefore T/W than expendables because fuel is a bigger part of operational cost.

If you think in terms of cost per ton of payload to orbit, you can't cheat. ISP, T/W are nice but only if they help bring down cost to orbit (or to surface of Mars / Moon / whatever), per payload ton.

Current Mars missions have a cost/ton of payload of $1B. To make a Martian city, have to bring that < $100k/t, or 10 000 times better.

How will you catch ship with arms? Very similar to booster. Need shield tiles to go over 180° so catch points will have to pop out or reach around. Can you catch with the flaps, aiming them forward enough? That is not a problem you want to try to solve!

Forward flaps will work, but have lots of room for optimization. They are the wrong size, the wrong position, and the wrong location (not sure what the distinction between those last two is). They bug him. Could maybe get rid of them.

They will build a factory to replace the tents.
>>
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Back-to-back Falcon 9 launches of Starlink within 24 hours, completing SpaceX's 19th and 20th launches of the year
>>
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>>1800477
>>
>>1799045
Seems like a waste of money
>>
>>1798852
Aerospikes are sexy but they aren't worth it.
>>
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2 months away bros can you feel it.
>>
>>1800475
>Next launch will be full orbital, not this quasi-orbital plan from earlier
He said its still a Hawaii splashdown without a full orbit, but is calling it orbital. Its orbital velocity but not circularized.
>>
>>1800486
Yeah but it isn't a hop, its basically an orbital flight.
>>
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3 days this piece is gonna launch. Gotta wonder if it'll work. I hate boeing but I want it to work.
>>
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>>1800491
Its wrirdly aesthetic, if it wasn't a POS it would be great
>>
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>>1800492
Also imagine being the first astronauts on this thing. It would be stressful as all hell
>>
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>>1800496
Then again I would hope all these delays have made them perfect it but you never know.
>>
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Compared to the dragon its scary However.
>>
>>1800490
Basically but not pedantically.
>>
Falcon9 is still having its performance improved by SpaceX as they continue their launch cadence.

>We’ve seen them recently launching 53 satellites to trajectories and orbits where in previous occasions, the rocket could only launch 46 or 47 satellites.

>William Gerstenmaier, SpaceX’s Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability, already claimed during the post-Flight Readiness Review conference for Axiom-1 that thrust profile optimizations for Starlink flights had been implemented to improve performance of the rocket.

>It is understood that SpaceX is also improving the performance of the rocket by changing certain timings during flight like igniting the MVac engine a few seconds earlier than on other missions or separating the fairing closer to stage separation to shed dead weight earlier in the flight.

>Additionally, SpaceX is loading propellants on the rocket at slightly lower temperatures than usual in order to pack more of them into the tanks and increase the amount of Starlink satellites the Falcon 9 can put into orbit.
>>
>>1800502
Right but no real reason to be pendantic.
>>
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Honestly we are so close to the Moon and Mars, we have every design already made and in testing. We will see them both this decade.
>>
The funny thing about Starliner is that its launch rocket is being retired. I'm assuming that Boeing purchased all the rockets necessary to complete their contract with NASA. But for any other launches Vulcan will need to be human rated first. Maybe they can barter with Amazon for some of the legacy rockets they bought for Kuiper.
>>
>>1799353

That's why I opted to use strap-on boosters for my design.
>>
>>1800527
Even more retarded
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>>1800518
Boeing isn't going to plan for any more than what is contracted. I'm sure they'll crew rate vulcan but man do i wish NASA forced it onto a falcon9
>>
>>1800509
>Raptor 2 engine x33
I'm getting somewhat concerning N1 vibes here. Those engines are fucking great, but that is 33 engines worth of points of failure. Glad it is being used for the unmanned launch elements at least.
>>
>>1800539
The N1 didn't fail because of the number of engines you brainlet. God damn thats angry boomer tier logic.
>>
My favorite part of launch statistics like this is that it records based on country except for the US which it records by individual company. Absolutely Mogged.
>>
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New starbase progress diagram.
>>
>>1800550
So is their launch pair seriously going to be 24/7
>>
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We currently have 13 active F9 boosters (including Vandenberg). There are more boosters to join after upcoming Falcon Heavy launches.
• B1049-9
• B1051-12
• B1052-4
• B1053-2
• B1058-12
• B1060-12
• B1061-7
• B1062-6
• B1063-5
• B1067-4
• B1069-1
• B1071-2
• B1073-1
>>
NS-21 is targeting liftoff from Launch Site One on Friday, May 20. The launch window opens at 8:30 a.m. CT / 13:30 UTC. Learn more about the crew and the symbols embedded in the #NS21 mission patch: https://blueorigin.com/news/new-shepard-ns-21-mission-announcement
>>
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>>1800564
>>
>>1800509
If the starship orbital velocity test flight is successful then how quickly would the starship start flying regular missions?
>>
>>1800564
>>1800565
>The patch concept came from Astronaut Evan Dick, who said reaching space in the crew capsule on NS-19 felt like climbing above the surface of the ocean after a lifetime of living below the surface. Additionally, several of the NS-21 astronauts have journeyed to the depths of the oceans and are passionate about the Earth’s waters. The five stars around the crew capsule represent Blue Origin’s fifth human flight.
The arrow symbolizes Blue Origin’s astronaut pin to celebrate Evan Dick’s second flight on New Shepard, in addition to the thin line within the number ‘2.’ Evan is also a passionate sailor and diver.
>The lighting bolt represents Katya Echazarreta’s passion for electricity and her mission to increase representation of women and minorities in STEM.
The circle represents Hamish Harding’s accomplishment of setting the global circumnavigation record by plane. In 2021, he dived the Challenger Deep, the deepest point in the world, with Victor Vescovo in a two-person submarine.
>The diamond with the circle represents Brazil’s flag in honor of Victor Correa Hespanha's heritage.
The water drop honors Jaison Robinson’s passion for diving, water polo, and climbing the tallest waterfall in the world.
>The triangle represents a mountain, paying homage to Victor Vescovo’s feat climbing the world’s seven summits. In 2020, he became the first person to repeatedly dive Challenger Deep (now 12 times) and is the first person to visit the deepest point in the world’s five oceans.
>>
>>1800569
>>1800565
>>1800564
The patch looks cool but holy fuck talk about adding self importance to something that isn't important.
>>
>>1800539
they couldn't synchronize all the engines back then. Now we have computers that could easily do that
>>
>>1800566
Its going to be rapidly evolving for a few years yet. But the prototypes starting with the first orbital attempt will be carrying Starlink sats since SpaceX is willing to risk losing them.
>>
>>1800541
Reducing points of failure isn't "boomer tier logic", it is optimisation. I hope it fucking works, and I'm sure it probably will end up fine, I just get a little apprehensive when I see it. Not trying to tear down your gay space communism fantasies, just hope the cunts don't blow apart a complex biting off more than they could chew.
>>1800572
This does give me more hope that there are least won't be a sync/guidance failure, but I still have reservations over the mechanical parts running fine/qa working out. I know that SX wrecked a lot of Falcons getting the platform downpat and are now reaping the rewards, but I also don't think there will be much patience for the same occurring with Starship HLS.
>>
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>>1800574
>Reducing points of failure isn't "boomer tier logic
More engines doesn't always mean more points of failure considering how simple theyve made the plumbing and other mechanisms. Also it gives redundancy for failure to occur.
>boomer tier logic
I said angry boomer as in angry astronaut you newfag.
>I just get a little apprehensive when I see it.
And that matters why? Do you get apprehensive of the falcon9? How about the delta 2?
>just hope the cunts don't blow apart a complex biting off more than they could chew.
You are insanely naive of current tech capabilities. This isnt the 1960s, stop acting like we face the same challenges.
> Not trying to tear down your gay space communism fantasies
Communism is for faggots, expanding the white race and creating a more stable future for our people is the goal.
>>
>>1800578
Sorry anon, I have no idea who angry astronaut is, I presume either a youtuber or twitter user? I am always somewhat apprehensive about new platforms, and the real concern here is the inevitable one of scale (a Falcon I blowing up and an HLS blowing up are very different things and you know it). Also, sorry to spoil it for you, but as long as space exploration is defined by the governments and billionaires of the world, you are going to get gay space communism. Wish it didn't have to be this way, but that is where we are. This isn't the 1960s, stop acting like we have remotely the same cultural standing.
I want to see this succeed, but I don't understand the cultish "DON'T YOU DARE FUCKING DISPLAY ANY SORT OF HESITATION" that has grown since people convinced themselves that CEOs funding engineers in a way that governments should have for decades now are personal celebrity geniuses comparable to a modern Brunel.
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>>1800574
>but I still have reservations over the mechanical parts running fine/qa working out
The ascent phase of every flight theyve had with the raptor has been nominal.
>I know that SX wrecked a lot of Falcons getting the platform downpat and are now reaping the rewards, but I also don't think there will be much patience for the same occurring with Starship HLS.
Everything they learned from that testing they will apply to the starship and they have had 157 flights worth of experience to improve upon their operation. Starship isn't starting from scratch it is evolutionary, the flight testing should reflect that.
>but I also don't think there will be much patience for the same occurring with Starship HLS.
Starship will have so many flights under its belt before HLS and in reality they don't even need to have reusability figured out for HLS to work.
>>
>>1800582
You see, that is stuff I am largely on the same page with you on. Apprehension now will undoubtedly be relieved by the time we are actually at HLS launch, although I will openly admit to the fact I will feel concerns until the first staging of HLS from Superheavy.
>>
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>>1800579
Yes he is a youtuber that always talks about the N1 when it comes to the starship. Hes a boomer so hes called the angry boomer here.
> I am always somewhat apprehensive about new platforms, and the real concern here is the inevitable one of scale (a Falcon I blowing up and an HLS blowing up are very different things and you know it)
Yes but this isn't oldspace, spacex will launch this platform frequntly and will test it exhaustively. Iterative testing and thorough live testing is so much better that simulation and sign offs. Also no they are not very different things, HLS refers to a flapless upper stage (pic related) but I assume you are talking about superheavy and superheavy is only a big risk on ascent which really isn't where the challenge is for spacex, upon landing the superheavy will have very little fuel and won't really be a huge risk.
>as long as space exploration is defined by the governments and billionaires of the world
Aviation started the same way, so did every technology. You are retarded if you think it means anything.
>standing.
I want to see this succeed, but I don't understand the cultish "DON'T YOU DARE FUCKING DISPLAY ANY SORT OF HESITATION"
Because the hesitation is coming from ignorant people like you who are worried about things that aren't an issue. Had you stated some realistic concerns I wouldn't have jumped on your comment. In other words lurk moar.
>that CEOs funding engineers in a way that governments should have for decades now are personal celebrity geniuses comparable to a modern Brunel.
Elon is the lead engineer, he is in the weeds with the design and he works insane hours for this goal. SpaceX basically saved the US space program from becoming defunct and that makes people supportive. On top of that spacex is laser focused on a mars colony which people have only dreamed about, also since its a private entity it cannot be stopped by the petty whims of the politicians.
>>
>>1800579
>>1800590
Also Musk is much more impactful and influential than Brunel and I would argue his engineering philosophy is better as well.
>>
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>>1800584
Its called starship, HLS is only the lunar landers they are building for NASA, those landers will not be part of the test flights the starship will be.
>although I will openly admit to the fact I will feel concerns until the first staging of HLS from Superheavy.
That is fine but your apprehension shouldn't be on things like the number of engines. Also there will be years of launches and tests by the time the test HLS lands on the moon.
>>
>>1800595
Pic related is the falcon heavy which also utilizes numerous engines on launch.
>>
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Not quite related but don't forget the lunar eclipse is tonight.
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>>1800598
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>The Expedition 67 crew is ramping up for the arrival of Boeing’s new Starliner crew ship due to launch next week to the International Space Station. Meanwhile, the orbital residents continued their ongoing human research, cleaned spacesuits, and maintained lab hardware.

>NASA Flight Engineers Kjell Lindgren and Bob Hines trained on Wednesday for next week’s launch and docking of the Starliner spacecraft on Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test-2 (OFT-2). Both astronauts spent part of the day familiarizing themselves with the OFT-2 mission and Boeing’s Starliner vehicle systems. The duo also reviewed Starliner’s post-docking procedures including leak and pressurization checks, entering the vehicle, and cargo operations.

>Boeing rolled out its Starliner vehicle to the United Launch Alliance (ULA) launch facility at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida on Tuesday. It was attached atop the Atlas-V rocket from ULA later that day. The Starliner crew ship and its rocket now stand vertical at the launch pad counting down to a liftoff targeted for 6:54 p.m. EDT on May 19. The unpiloted Starliner vehicle will automatically dock to the Harmony module’s forward port about 24 hours later where it will stay for cargo and test operations for five to 10 days.
>>
>https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1525909526968401921
Starlink is working well in Ukraine. Imagine how it'll work once they have thousands more sats.
>>
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For the first time ever, scientists from
UF grew plants in lunar soil! The ability to grow plants in space is essential to enabling longer term space exploration and this research will be key as we prepare to return to the Moon with Artemis.
>>
>>1800605
Space makes many things difficult but one thing easy. To vacuum seal sample, close bag in a vacuum.
>>
>>1800605
I guess that means you don't have to 100% rely on hydroponics but is there any real significance to this?
>>
>>1800592
>Also Musk is much more impactful and influential than Brunel
You see that is where you lost me completely.
To say that he might go on to be more influential than Brunel, hell, if he gets us to Mars sometime before 2040 then he will earn that title, but at the moment he is a man who has become exceptionally good at getting government agencies to fund his eccentricities. Not even knocking him for that, it is a fucking good grift and I respect him for it, especially if it bears fruit in time. That being said, at this point we have the body of Brunel's life of work to compare to Musk's work to date, and I consider the Great Western to have done more for humanity than getting some astronauts to the ISS with a method other than Soyuz and shitting a ton of cubesats into the orbital neighbourhood. Here's hoping your boy comes through in the end.
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>>1800550
SN24 is really looking good now
>>
>>1800634
The tiny cargo door reminds me more of a pizza oven or disc shooter than a pez dispenser.
>>
>>1800614
It basically proves that plants can grow anywhere, duh

Hence the universe is teeming with life
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>>1800615
Winning contracts is not the same as a grift. Also the government gave more money to the competing but worse performing companies like boeing and lockheed for the same contract programs. The government is saving billions of dollars from using SpaceX rockets and they get a superior product.
>especially if it bears fruit in time
It already has, the falcon 9 and dragon have done numerous flights to the ISS have launched so many government satellites like the landsat 9 and have given the us full control over their launches again. NASA would be using the soyuz to get their astronauts to space still and would be paying through the nose to get anemic payloads to space.
>That being said, at this point we have the body of Brunel's life of work to compare to Musk's work to date, and I consider the Great Western to have done more for humanity than getting some astronauts to the ISS with a method other than Soyuz and shitting a ton of cubesats into the orbital neighbourhood
Musk founded X.com which became PayPal and PayPal was crucial to the rise of ecommerce. So already he was deeply involved in a company that impacted the lives of the average person around the world. Then you have Tesla which absolutely revolutionized the auto industry, has pushed the world to adopting EVs and has forced their competitors to focus on automation. SpaceX also has revolutionized their industry with the falcon 9 gorcing the industry to turn towards reusability and play catchup against a decade old launch platform. Currently China, Germany, France, the UK, Spain, the ESA, Japan, and Russia are all pursuing reusable rockets similar to the Falcon9. Also Relativity Space, Blue Origin, Arianespace, ULA, and Rocketlab are pursuing similar concepts. The falcon9 and dragon capsule like I stated previously have given the US self reliance for spaceflight again and have given them insane launch cadence capabilities at a very low cost per lb to orbit.
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>>1800653
Then there's starlink which is already serving thousands of rural customers and changing where people are required to live, it is also being utilized by multiple airlines changing how inflight service is provided and it is being used tohelp both the Ukrainian military and civilians while in an active warzone. On top of all that SpaceX has the starship program which has already been chosen as the HLS for NASA. That has entirely changed the scope, timeline and goals of the Artemis program. It has also lit a fire under the ass of the SLS team and has forced the government to take the program seriously. So even if Elon stopped right now he would have revolutionized 3 industries, kickstarted the defunct space program, and impacted the lives of millions. But he is not done, his mars colony plan is well underway and with it so many other space based capabilities/the course of humanity, FSD is going to change automation in so many aspects of our lives not just cars, starlink is going to connect most of the world while changing the rural/city dynamic, his purchase of twitter may keep us from tyranny and the boring company and neuralink may change the average person's QoL as well. He is Christopher Columbus mixed with a Rockefeller/Carnegie industrial titan, he is a brilliant engineer like Brunel and he is impacting the future socially. I would argue noone is comparable to him
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>>1800614
hypenis,,,"firstimever"!
The scientists only had 12 grams — just a few teaspoons — of lunar soil with which to do this experiment. On loan from NASA

researchers also planted Arabidopsis in JSC-1A, a terrestrial substance that mimics real lunar soil

plant seeds in lunar soil, add water, nutrients and light
,,,weknew this already,,,mostly.,
,real moon dust,,,getting cheaper?,weuseito g
roweed!
>>1800650
moonwater isweet.
>>
>>1800650
The article indicated the moon dust was sterile and that a nutrient solution needed to be applied. The experiment doesn't really prove much other than random dust can be used as a root support structure. People that do hydroponics use rockwool insultation to act as a root support which is similar but with better porosity.
>>
>>1800653
>>1800654
>Winning contracts is not the same as a grift
I am not purely referring to SpaceX, the man is involved in several projects that most engineers find somewhat laughable as they are over promising and under delivering for government dollar.
Lightning round on the innovations
>X.com
Wasn't the first, but undoubtedly became the standard, I give him (and the rest of the team) that one every day of the week.
>Tesla
If by revolutionise the industry you mean set a new standard in selling poorly QA'd products for premium money, all while moving people closer to "mobility as a service" then I'd give you that, but I would call it a devolution more than anything else. Highly dependent on a resource that is closer to peak than oil (and I'm not saying that to defend oil as it is right to be moving away by and large, but people do not understand how fucking close we are to peak viable lithium, and the ecological cost of recycling that shit is not pretty).
>SpaceX
Definitely giving this one, it is his biggest mark and the one that all the other engineering grifts justify for many. That being said, ULA especially but also BO deserve more credit than they are generally given by fanboys.
>Starlink
Almost single handedly causing movement on the space conservation debate, so I'd give them that I guess. Musk is no friend of astronomers and astrophysicists.
>Revolutionised 3 industries
Payment processing arguably
Commercial space travel undoubtedly
That is it really.
>Mars colony
Again, if we ever see it. Deadline keeps getting pushed back and is starting to feel like NASA's constant "moonbase next decade" line I grew up with.
>twitter stuff
Not sure that locking realID into social media is going to help the internet in any functional way, until he is an advocate for full anonymity (and his dealings with US DoD on Starlink make me highly suspicious of that) I consider him to be a glowie.
I'm glad you have a hero, I hope you never have to meet him. Stay optimistic anon.
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HANGER X
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>>1800665
>the man is involved in several projects that most engineers find somewhat laughable as they are over promising and under delivering for government dollar.
name them
> set a new standard in selling poorly QA'd products for premium money
I'm sorry but did you last think about this in 2015?
>that being said, ULA especially but also BO deserve more credit than they are generally given by fanboys.
they deserve nothing until they produce a product. No one should credit vaporware.
>Musk is no friend of astronomers and astrophysicists.
A few amateurs dislike him, but the professionals have no issue with the satellites.
>That is it really.
and the automotive industry. You cannot say it did not when the entire market is now chasing Tesla
> Deadline keeps getting pushed back and is starting to feel like NASA's constant "moonbase next decade" line I grew up with.
The difference is SpaceX is currently deep in testing and development of a launch platform that can easily make a Mars colony happen. They are only a few months from its orbital test, they've made numerous test articles, and their ground systems are already in place.(pic is old but shows the progress well) NASA's promises on the other hand never had the hardware or even a coherent plan, just pitches and promises.
>Not sure that locking realID into social media is going to help the internet in any functional way, until he is an advocate for full anonymity
I agree but we don't know what will happen yet, that is why i used the word "may" but either way a disruption in the current system if anything at least delays the censorship that was happening.
>I'm glad you have a hero, I hope you never have to meet him. Stay optimistic anon
How condescending. Saying he is more impactful or being supportive of his work does not mean I consider him a hero, nor is arguing against criticism aimed at him "cultish". How about next time you don't use these crutches to make an argument.
>>
>>1800730
here is a webm to also push forward the point.
>>
>>1800730
>name them
Hyperloop, a century plus old (and similarly century plus found impractical) idea that is still shilled as the future of transportation despite turning into "electric cars in tunnels".
>The Boring Company
Related to the above, alleged to make tunneling affordable with radical new techniques, turns out to be the same tunneling techniques used in mining for decades, at the same cost.
>Starlink
Concerns were raised over the impact of so many clustered sats on ground observation, concerns were laughed away with "but there is lots of space" tier arguments, turned out they are fucking up observatories around the world (and not just bloke with telescope in backyard, talking shit like the SKA here).Efforts to lower albedo have failed.
>I'm sorry but did you last think about this in 2015?
Tesla build quality issues still present, as long as Musk insists that he can commercially assemble vehicles in tents and paint them in non cleanbooth conditions it will continue.
>ULA
Launching since 06.
>A few amateurs dislike him, but the professionals have no issue with the satellites.
SKA have issues with starlink among others. Furthermore, astronomy is actually one of the most citizen science dependent disciplines, to discount the "few amateurs" suggests that you are a fanboy kiddie that can't hear anything against your hero.
>Entire market is now chasing Tesla
Marketing =/= engineering. Performancemarket is chasing Porsche, consumer is chasing Nissan. If Tesla is about making the electric car affordable, why do they still not manufacture a competitor to the Leaf?
>Mars colony
Don't talk of it as already done, you sound like a NASA fanboy saying that Apollo applications will flyby Venus because they said they would.
>twitter
If Musk wanted to disrupt the current system he would have put that sum into promoting aternatives.
>Condescending
I am being as condescending of your hero worship of him as you are of any criticism towards his output.
>>
When will the United Kingdom have a domestic launch capability?
>>
>>1795769
The US department of commerce is currently trying to
>uhhh make policy
but unfortunately they are slow and retarded. They were supposed to have figured it out like 3 years ago because the space force doesn't want to keep giving SpaceX free data and special gibs. Meanwhile SpaceX doesn't even know when their sats are gonna manuever (lol bro it's fine it's AI lol what do you mean black box?)

I'm sure this won't cause any issues.
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>>1800794
>Hyperloop
So 1 project? Also what government contracts has Boring company gotten for hyperloop and how are they underperforming on those contracts?
>despite turning into "electric cars in tunnels".
So here you are showing your ignorance because the vegas loop was never supposed to be hyperloop and the tunnel system seems to be working well
>turned out they are fucking up observatories around the world
Gonna need a source on that.
>Launching since 06.
Yes and noone criticises the delta IV or the Atlas V but those weren't ULA rockets, they were taken over from ULA. The Vulcan centaur is their first one, it is not flying yet, its powerful but its not even focused on reusability. Like I said when they have a product they will get respect.
>SKA have issues with starlink among others.
The vast majority of astronomical research programs at optical wavelengths only begin well after twilight. Same is true for ametuer observation which makes starlink not really a problem. The IAU Center for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky From Satellite Constellation Interference has also been created and should mitigate even more of the issues involved with emerging satellites. They have concerns about mega constellations which is why they are in direct communication with SpaceX and Oneweb and Amazon. SKAO was also just approved which means its not a problem they believe they cannot tackle.
>Performancemarket is chasing Porsche
The Model S outperforms the Taycan, the model 3 has yet to be beaten as a full package and topgear, motortrend, caranddriver, topspeed and carmax will all tell you the same. To argue otherwise is disingenuous.
>why do they still not manufacture a competitor to the Leaf?
Because they are already affordable. New-vehicle average transaction prices (ATPs) increased to $46,526 in April 2022, according to new data released by Kelley Blue Book. The model 3 is $46,990, that may be not affordable to you and I but that puts it in the affordable range
>>
>>1800934
>Don't talk of it as already done, you sound like a NASA fanboy
I didn't, I said "SpaceX is currently deep in testing and development of a launch platform that can easily make a Mars colony happen." Which is true. They have been making observable and measurable progress on a vehicle that can take very large payloads to the martian surface, that is entirely different than NASA saying "and one day to mars".
>If Musk wanted to disrupt the current system he would have put that sum into promoting aternatives
Alternatives do not have the same foundation, that is why no alternatives are as popular or as trafficked.
>as you are of any criticism towards his output.
No not any criticism, just these thunderfoot tier positions you seem to grab onto.
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>>1800918
Skyora, and Orbex are working on their rockets AND Black arrow is making a ship to launch from. Also your government is allowing American space companies to launch from the UK so you are about to be relevant.
>>
CAPSTONE IS ALMOST READY
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Wet dress rehearsal completed for the upcoming launch. Next stop…..the Moon! I always wanted to say that.
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>>1800918
*again
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Relativity Space image. Guess the part
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THE DESIGNATED SHITSHUTTLE IS HERE
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>>1801073
about time
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Rocketlab has the worm
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>>1801135
And meatball
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>>1801136
Its beautiful
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>>1801137
>>
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Our dual test cell architecture allows parallel processing of our BE-4 rocket engines. The second test cell was built in less than a year back in 2015.
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>>1801297
Both test cells have been hard at work pushing BE-4's performance even higher as we enter the flight engine and qualification testing phase. When a single test cell is scheduled for maintenance, the other cell is ready for hotfire.
>>
>>1801300
Our test team is preparing to receive the first flight engines for acceptance testing prior to delivery to
@ulalaunch
. We’ve worked hand in hand with our ULA partners and recently hosted their team for a Test Stand Flight Engine Readiness Review.
>>
Why don't we just kick Russia out of the ISS and offer all the cosmonauts a place in the west.
>>
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What the fuck is this?
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>>1801305
Booster QD back plate to cover hoses.
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Skyhooks may not be possible anymore because of megaconstellations. Skyhooks could be built with current materials and they can lift payloads on a suborbital trajectory FOR FREE. For free being without propellants, electrodynamic tethers can boost their orbit by reacting against Earth's magnetic field. A skyhook might hit a musky pornosat every month*, making them uneconomical to operate and making it uneconomical to bootstrap further tethers.

*I pulled this number out of my ass, it might not really be a problem, but it's disturbing.
>>
Raptor 2s moved into Magabay for booster install.
>>
>>1801356
Meh it wasn't very viable anyway
>>
>>1801506
July is going to be so awesome
>>
>>1800934
>>1800935
>the vegas loop
>the tunnel system seems to be working well

the vegas loop has been a continual shitshow, it went from "shitty underground peoplemover" to "literal highways underground with translohr" to "guided cars" to just "taxis underground"

when your "transit of the future" meant to "eliminate traffic jams" is experiencing traffic jams, you should probably step back and re-evaluate what you're doing
>>
>>1801517
wasn't very viable? Anon, this could vastly decrease the cost of space travel. Do you not get the part about how you can boost a suborbital rocket to orbit for pretty much FREE? This can be built with near term tech too. The main technical problem is deploying a long tether in the first place.
>>
>>1801652
Complexity Nd propellant means that no, it isn't.
>>
>>1800955
Downcomer? Faster to print than mounting a tube, certainly simpler?
>>
>>1801522
>it went from "shitty underground peoplemover" to "literal highways underground with translohr" to "guided cars" to just "taxis underground"
If you are going to trash talk it at least learn what it is you mouth breathing redditnigger.
>the vegas loop has been a continual shitshow
No it hasnt
>The Boring Company’s (TBC) test drives for its Las Vegas Convention Center Loop (LVCC) exceeded 4,400 passengers per hour, according to results revealed on May 29. Steve Hill, the Chief Executive Officer and President of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), announced the results of TBC’s LVCC Loop test run with real passengers.
>@boringcompany
LoopSim predicted 4450 pph (within 1% of observed value) for that configuration (V3 with 62 vehicles), so this was a good anchor for our model. It predicts 5050 pph for V4 at the Convention Center. And 55,000 pph for the full Vegas Loop!
Its outperforming trains
>your "transit of the future" meant to "eliminate traffic jams" is experiencing traffic jams
The test article had a standard parking lot at the end which since they haven't switched over to full self driving people got confused. Its really a non issue
>>
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>>1801677
>>propellant
tethers can be reboosted WITHOUT propellant
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrodynamic_tether
>>
>>1795769
Kessler Syndrome isn't relevant in LEO. Debris in LEO falls back to Earth within a few years. After the next major war, there will likely be several years where LEO isn't safe, but that situation will normalize within a few decades at most. Not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Humanity has experienced much worse setbacks before.

>but what about higher orbits where debris won't decay for hundreds or thousands of years?
Sucks for anybody that wants to camp out there. not really a huge deal for anybody who's only passing through. but more importantly, LEO what you really need for telecommunications and for military purposes.
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Wtf is this shit boeing?
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>>1802066
Pepsi Man
>>
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>>1802079
Please don't reference that shitty game here
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CAPSTONE IS DELIVERED
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>>1802107
>>
Capstone, starliner, Vulcan, dreamchaser, SLS and Starship. We are about to see a real space explosion
>>
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GO FO LAUNCH T- 4 MINUTES
>>
There it goes
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>>1802131
>>
>>1802133
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>>1802134
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>>1802135
>>
>>1802136
>>
>>1802137
>>
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We officially started training for Polaris Dawn this week, jumping into basic medical and scuba training to learn skills that will help us on the EVA!
>>
NASA wants the public opinion on 50 exploration projects that will be prioritized over the next 20 years. Here’s the link to vote: https://socialforms.nasa.gov/m2m-objectives
It closes may 31
>>
>But the accomplishment was somewhat marred when at a postlaunch briefing Boeing revealed that two of the four thrusters that were to put the spacecraft into the correct orbit failed. Starliner has 12 thrusters that can be used for such maneuvers. Backups kicked in, officials said, and the spacecraft entered the correct orbit.
>>
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>>1802325
>reddit
>>
>>1802209
Its embarrassing but depending on the issue it won't be Conisidered a problem by NASA they'll just make sure the inspection targets them
>>
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Falcon Heavy schedule.
>>
Boeing thrusters
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>>1802462
Party Hard
>>
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>>1802471
Its like a party and noone is invited
>>
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Closer
>>
CLOSER.
>>
>>1802487
CLOSER
>>
>>1802488
ITS SO CLOSE
>>
Looks better with shadow
>>
Honestly guys im very happy starliner worked. It means that the US is again dominant in space
>>
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Finally some good pics
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>>1802524
Which I will say I prefer the kino starliner aesthetic to the dragon
>>
Quick recap on Starliner launch
>2 thrusters failed initially
>1 shutdown early
>next day, 2 more thrusters failed
>following those 4 main thrusters, they had to rely upon the side thrusters
>life support cooling system wasn't running nominally
>Starliner NDS for docking failed and had to be reset
What else did I miss?
>>
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New pics
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>>1802787
>>
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>>1802788
>>
>>1802790
>>1802788
>>1802526
>>1802524
>>1802492
>>1802489
>>1802488
>>1802487
>>1802486
>>1802482
>>1802462
Whatever you think of boeing just know this is huge for American spaceflight. This redundancy is needed for the US to be independent in LEO operations and it also means there will be no delay in operation.
>>
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Today, Brazil awarded
Elon musk
with the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit
>>
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Tower sections 1, 2, 3 and 5 are complete, section 4 is basically completed (only some small stuff needs to be done) and section 6 is under construction and already 3/4 done.
>>
>>1802803
Interesting, I wonder if Starbase will be approved before this tower is finished. It really didn't take long for the original pathfinding construction.
>>
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/engineers-investigating-nasas-voyager-1-telemetry-data
Voyager 1 is pointing at Earth and communicating, but the onboard software is insisting it isn’t
>>
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>>1802818
Holy shit thats so ugly
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So this is kino power, huh? Not bad...
>>
>>1802803
I think as much of the pipework and miscellaneous hardware as possible will be preinstalled before rollout. There are so many launches to work around while doing assembly.

The chopstick hinge was already added to the new one while for the BC tower it was done after stacking.
>>
>>1802832
Honestly, I bet the entire build process is going to be different. This thing will probably go up so much faster.
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>>1802824
Honestly it is much more KINO than I expected it to be. The Dragon still mogs the shit out of it with the interior and the RCS system but the Starliner has a more kino face.
>>
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New raptors are beautiful
>>
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>>1802803
Cryo tubing spotted near the Florida tower segments with pieces being welded together already.
>>
>>1803207
It's going up so fast. I wonder if SpaceX is going to do the first test from Florida
>>
>>1803227
There's no way to transfer a rocket, so no testing in Florida until they build the factory first.
>>
>>1803229
Uh what? no
>>
>>1803235
There's no moving one of those rockets to the Brownsville port without removing hundreds of light poles, traffic lights, power lines etc. and shutting down traffic for over a day.
>>
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So if its already leaving does that mean its not good enough?
>>
>>1803500
Dropped off the cargo so now its just finishing the rest of the test.
>>
>>1803504
Seems early still, I thought it was supposed to be up for at least a week.
>>
Has anyone heard anything about the chink LM9
>>
>>1803535
Dragon Demo 1 was 6 days from launch to landing.

The demo flight with 2 person crew will stay longer.
>>
>>1803723
Still seems short.
>>
>We’re one week from the FAA’s latest deadline to complete the environmental review process for SpaceX’s launch site in South Texas. This time my expectation is that there will not be another extension. Likely decision: a mitigated FONSI. This means … -Eric Berger
>>
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What the fuck is this China? DOYOU HAVE TO COPY EVERYTHING YOU SOULLESS CHINKS.
>>
What will humanity even look like as a culture after colonising planets? Most journeys will be one way and communication will be slow. Colonies will likely be massively isolated and insular. We can’t expect to act as one species across such divides. We’ll just be recreating the failed American experiment again and again on every planet or moon we inhabit. Really don’t feel like getting nuked by the long limbed spazoids from mars when we tell them they can’t fuck their test tube spawn.
>>
>>1803760
Billionaires so fond of tinkering with the fabric of society will hand pick the people that make up the colonies. Sycophants only, will end up being a big cult.
>>
>>1803760
It will very much still come down to race.
>>
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Oh boy
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>>1804287
Managed to one up SpaceX by having all 3 chute inflate.
>>
Soi Astronaut's interview part 2 is out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP5k3ZzPf_0

The first 2 parts are underwhelming compared to last year's tour.
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Sergei takes the beat ISS pics.
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>>1804734
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>>1800986
>shuttle glued on top like an arrowhead
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>>1804749
I can't wait for it to explode
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S24 being hooked up to the cryo station on the launch pad. This is all a new setup so we'll see how this goes.
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SN24 looks great
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>>1804918
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>>1804904
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbBeoReu12E
10:09:51 seconds there is a bang and a bunch of tiles blow off. Will only be viewable for a few more hours before it falls off the live stream history.
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>>1804992
Also on the NSF stream at the same time. Should be in their daily recap video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhJRzQsLZGg
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Following the test they removed this bent piece of pipe.
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Damage from the big bada boom.
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>>1804998
Wonder wtf happened. Seems like a big fuckup
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>>1795996
Maybe you could mount it to a high speed rail anchor across the equator
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>>1804998
At least it's not just from flexing/expansion this time around
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>>1804998
Fuck. How long does this set them back?
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>>1805028
Probably not much. The welds still hadn't been tiled yet.
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>>1805029
Good this is a bad look to the NASA observation team though im sure
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>>1805010
northpole,,,then itslow turns,noair drag.
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Reminder for those that keep saying 10 years is too close for mars. This pic was taken 10 years ago this week
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>>1805033
A capsule docking with a space station?
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>>1805044
A very rudimentary capsule docking using the arm
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RGV did a flight this morning for their weekly aerial photography review. I never watch their 3 hour livestream "live" because it moves so damn slow. I watch it afterwards with 1 finger on the L key so I can keep jumping forward until they switch images. I can usually get through the 3 hours in 30 minutes stopping now and then to listen to something I'm interested in.
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>From 2 guys in a WeWork dreaming of an end-2020 first launch, to today: 800 people across multiple sites, we developed an entirely new large scale manufacturing tech + advanced oxygen/methane rockets, with $hundreds of millions in customer contracts launching in a few more weeks.
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>>1805062
>docking using the arm
Isn't Dragon capable of docking by itself?
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>>1805429
Yes, but that was cargo dragon 1. They've come a long way
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>>1804734
What's the minimum no. of thrusters a ship needs to provide complete control over motion?
>>1804998
SN24?
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>>1805503
>SN24?
Yes. Someone speculated that the bent pipe that was removed was part of the venting system and that it broke loose swung around and impacted the inside of that part of the ship.
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Interesting pair up
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Oh my!
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>>1807885
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Booster 7 started getting grid fins installed this week. No unobstructed views into the wide bay, so no one knows how many engines have been installed.

After repairs S24 got another cryo and is now on pad A to get its shit pushed in this week. Hopefully static fires to quickly follow.
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>>1808167
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>>1808168
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>>1808169
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>>1808190
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>>1808393
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>>1808394
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>>1808399
American excellence
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return from space, land vertically, and be used again. Similarly, my submersible Limiting Factor is the first vessel to repeatedly dive to the ocean's deepest point. Finally: the arrival of economical, extreme machine reusability!
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Soon
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So many good sls pics
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>>1808447
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>>1808448
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>>1808449
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>>1808450
>>1808449
>>1808448
>>1808447
Ready by 2050(provided no further delays happens).
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>>1795763
>we
literally who is "we". I hate m*skoids so much.
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>>1808461
The United States of America
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The flight BE4s are in the assembly stand
@blueorigin
. Here's a view from the upper platform of one of the pair with the very cool additively manufactured GOX dome installed. #VulcanRocket #VulcanCentaur
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Both stages of Terran 1 are at the cape now
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quick reminder that, for some time now,
@NASAPersevere
has had a rock stuck in its front left wheel.

The rock doesn't seem to pose any problems.

But take a moment to think about the awful grinding noise that thing makes as it slides around every time the rover moves.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1533825883567493120

SpaceX gets a 10-year license to operate Starlink in France. If you understand the country's protective politics, this is pretty significant
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WDR delays CRS launch.
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China launched 55x in 2021. It's reasonably to assume they'll double that by 2031, and if they've figured out reusable rockets by 2035 in the same class as Starship/SuperHeavy, then you can reasonably double that again. So ~2-225 launches a year. More importantly though, in context, I don't think China considers SpaceX & America as one item and instead compares itself more to NASA and legacy providers the world over, and in context of that, that statement could be true.

SpaceX is in a class of its own and trying to compare yourself to them, when you're about a decade behind the curve is silly.
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Soviet Cosmonaut Valeriy Viktorovich Ryumin passed away early this evening at the age of 82
RIP
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>>1808581
Pic for reference
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I'm going to make a rough calculation for how much money will have to be spent on a Mars colony before it is self-sufficient. Of course it is impossible to predict the future, but we can make some reasonable guesses and come up with a ballpark figure.

Population: The population starts at zero. Musk claims you need 1 million people to become self sufficient, so we will agree with that claim. To make math easy, I will say the same number of people get added to the colony every year (or synod..doesn't matter for the math). This means that the average population from when the colony starts until when the colony is self-sufficient is 500,000 people. Claiming the number grows at a constant rate is of course wrong. That isn't how populations work. Maybe later I'll get into the more complicated math to refine this estimate.

Time: Musk claims there will be a million people by 2050. I don't think anyone (even Musk) believes him. I'm going to claim it will take 100 years to go from zero to 1 million people on Mars. Later I can see how much changing this number impacts the final cost.

Cost: I will assume a ticket to Mars is $100,000. I will assume living on Mars costs 4 times more than the average cost of living in the United States. Why 4 times more? Because houses have to be strong pressure vessels, the air has to be made and cleaned continuously, the water has to be mined and recycled, the food has to be grown inside large pressure vessels, going outside to do anything requires very expensive and technical equipment, and of course all of these houses and equipment have to be built new because none of it exists right now. Some random website claimed the average cost of living for a single person is US$38,266 so we will claim on Mars it is US$153,000.
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>>1808590
Self-sufficiency: When the first colonists arrive, they will have to import everything with them. But after 99 years the colony will be almost self-sufficient, so not very much will have to be imported. After 100 years, nothing will have to be imported because the colony will be self-sufficient. So in the first year, the entire $153,000 per person has to be imported. After 100 years $0 has to be imported. So on average during the first 100 years, US$76,500 has to be imported per person per year. Now just to be clear, if the living expense is $153,000 per person, and if on average $76,500 has to be imported, that means we assume on average $76,500 of value is being created by the colonists to support each colonists each year. The first year they haven't started working yet so they are creating $0 value. At the end of 100 years they are fully self-sufficient so they are creating $153,000 of value per person. So on average the are creating $76,500 worth of stuff per person in the colony to support colonists.

So now we can calculate how much money has to be spent on imports before the Mars colony is self-sufficient.

For 100 years, we have an average of 500,000 people costing $76,500 in imports per person per year.

Total cost = 100 x 500,000 x 76500 = US$3.8 trillion

So in the first 100 years, the colonists have to import US$3.8 trillion worth of equipment. But during the same time, they are creating US$3.8 trillion in value in the colony to support colonists.
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>>1808591
It costs a total of $7.6 trillion to run the colony for the first 100 years. Half of that value is created by the colonists, half of that value is imported.

We can add the cost of the tickets to get there. Let's assume we ship 1 million people to Mars, and the ticket price is $100,000. That comes out to $100 billion. Because the ticket is bought on Earth with Earth money it counts as an import. That raises the total imports from $3.8 trillion to $3.9 trillion. It is interesting to note that the cost of getting there is a pretty insignificant fraction of the cost (about 2.6%).

So it costs $3.9 trillion worth of imports and flights for a Mars colony to become self-sufficient.

Just to be clear, this doesn't include the work that the Martians do on Mars to support themselves. We are assuming all of that is free (or paid for with MarsBucks). The $3.9 trillion is just the cost of imports. The imports have to be paid for with Earth currency (let's assume US$, but it could just as easily be Euros or Yen or whatever).

Where does the Mars colony get $3.9 trillion in Earth currency?

Where does the money come from?
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>>1808593
Charity: We can assume some really rich people are going to fund the colony....or maybe some governments. Let's say Elon Musk funded this? Right now Musk has $218 billion. We would need 18 Elon Musk's to have enough money. But of course to get $218 billion Musk would actually have to sell his companies, and if shareholders are in charge of SpaceX instead of Musk you can probably kiss any Mars colony goodbye. We want Musk to stay in control of SpaceX, which means he has less money available to buy stuff for colonists. We could hope to get funding from NASA. Let's say NASA gives 10% of their budget to the Mars colony for the next 100 years. That would be $240 billion. So between NASA and Musk, we've got less than 12% of the money we need. And thinking we would get anywhere close to 10% of NASA's budget for 100 years is incredibly wishful thinking. They didn't even fund the end of the Apollo program and fly their last couple missions even though they'd already built the hardware. So we can not depend on charity.

Tourism: This is another pipe dream. Round trips to Mars take at least a year. Almost no one on the planet takes year long vacations. And the ultra-rich aren't going to spend large amounts money to sit in a stainless steel can for many months when they can be yachting in the Mediterranean or do any number of other luxury vacations. I'm not saying there will be no tourists. But the number of tourists will never be high enough to provide a significant fraction of the necessary money.
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>>1808595
The colonists: When the colonists move to Mars, they will have Earth money. All of their Earth money will be used to buy stuff to bring with them. This all counts as imports for the Mars colony. So any money the colonists have before they move to Mars counts towards the $3.9 trillion. So let's say we have 2 million colonists (because we are talking about a 100 year time-span to get to 1 million on Mars, all of the ones we send at the beginning will be dead before 100 years is up, if birth rates are low we have to send a lot more than 1 million to get to 1 million at the end of 100 years). If 2 million colonists provide the $3.9 trillion, that is US$1.95 million for each colonist. If each colonist pays almost $2 million for the right to live on Mars, then the colonists will be providing enough money to fund the colony until it is self sufficient.
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>>1808596
Summary

So a Mars colony needs to create $3.8 trillion worth of machines, habitats, food, oxygen, water, spacesuits to survive the first 100 years. They also have to create $3.9 trillion worth of stuff to sell in the first 100 years so they can buy imports. But they will only be able to create $3.5 trillion worth of stuff total. The only other viable way to raise the necessary money for imports is if every single colonist brings $2 million with them to the colony. There is still the shortfall between the $3.8 trillion worth of products they have to make themselves, and the $3.5 trillion that they are capable of making, but these numbers are close, so we'll call it good.

Discussion

So why is this so hard? Based on my numbers, it is basically impossible.

What it comes down to is the cost of living vs the productivity of each colonist. I assumed that the cost of living is 4 times higher than the average cost of living in the United States. And I assumed the colonists would be as productive as the average person in Silicon Valley. If these two numbers are correct, the colony is doomed to fail (or the price to join the colony has to be $2 million).
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>>1808597
Is my cost of living estimate reasonable? Right now, we don't pay anything for air. We pay next to nothing for water. Our food is grown very cheaply in huge fields with very little equipment. Most of the cost of the infrastructure all around us has already been paid for by previous generations. Our houses are made out of flimsy materials because they don't have to be strong. Walking outside doesn't require any special equipment. The costs for designing new things (like cars) are spread over many millions or even billions of people. Shipping costs for supplies are quite low.

On Mars, we will have to process our air to make it safe. We will have to mine water ice with heavy machinery, and do a much better job recycling than any Earth water treatment plant. Our food will have to be grown inside strong buildings in soil (or hydroponic systems) that don't exist yet. All of the infrastructure will have to be built from scratch, none of it exists yet. Habitats will have to be much stronger than houses to withstand air pressure. Any work outside has to be done in complex clothing that is basically its own mini spaceship. And the cost of designing new stuff (we will have to design a lot of new stuff!) is only spread over less than 1 million people. Shipping costs for supplies are very high.

So I think saying the cost of living on Mars is 4 times the cost of living in the US is actually very generous. It is likely the cost of living on Mars will be much higher.

Is my estimate for productivity reasonable? Will people on Mars be more productive than people in Silicon Valley. It isn't likely. There is a "city" effect where productivity increases in large populations. It just becomes easier to share ideas, start new projects, bump into someone at the coffee shop who is the perfect person to help your team. For a long time a Mars colony will be a small town, and even once it gets up to 1 million people it is still a lot smaller than Silicon Valley.
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>>1808598
Being so far away from the global supply chain means if you are prototyping a new product, and you need some specific part, you can't just order it on Amazon and have it there the next day, or order 1000 of them on alibaba and have it there in a month. You will either have to wait months or years for it to ship from Earth, or you will have to manufacture it yourself. Being required to manufacture all uncommon parts when prototyping or building specialized equipment will slow down the process and decrease productivity. The same is true with spare parts for fixing broken equipment.

Being far away from Earth's internet will slow down productivity. I'm sure there will be a mirror of almost all websites located on Mars, but that mirror can't possibly be complete, and there will be times when people have to wait for the round-trip communication delay to get information. That will make them less productive.

Any work that has to be done outside will be much more difficult. That will make people less productive.

So saying the Mars colonists would be as productive as workers in Silicon Valley was being generous. It is unlikely colonists will be able to be that productive.

Conclusion

Again, based on my assumptions of cost to live on Mars and productivity of Martian colonists, it will be pretty close to impossible for a Mars colony to exist unless each colonist pays $2 million to the colony for the right to move there.

And my assumptions for cost of living and productivity were generous to the colony.
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>>1808599
Now, eventually we'll have self-replicating machines. That blows away the "productivity" number and a Mars colony will be no problem. But until then a Mars colony seems impossible, and it seems Musk should be focusing on self-replicating machines instead of Starship because the transportation issue is actually small in comparison.

So assuming we want a colony to get started in the near future (before self replicating machines), how can it happen? What are the steps we need to take to get from here to there?

Future work The main thing that could be improved in my calculations is changing from linear population growth and linear "self-sufficiency growth" to more realistic scenarios. But I'm pretty sure that doing that will result in the beginning of the colonization period becoming much more difficult and things getting easier near the 100 year self-sufficiency goal.
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NASA issues a statement on why the CRS-25 Cargo Dragon launch has been postponed.

An issue during prop loading of the Dragon.
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>>1808579
See
>>1808601
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>>1808583
>>1808581
Kek absolutely delusional. Its not reasonable to assume that will double especially with the challenges china is facing this decade.
>and if they've figured out reusable rockets by 2035 in the same class as Starship/SuperHeavy
Exactly how are they going to do that outside of espionage. Right now they're using soviet technology andthe starship/superheavy is much more advanced then we even realize, they aren't getting that in 12 years, especially not with the trouble they are facing internally.
>More importantly though, in context, I don't think China considers SpaceX & America as one item and instead compares itself more to NASA and legacy providers the world over, and in context of that, that statement could be true.
So ignore the absolutely monumental lead your competition has and then you can pretend you are leading? Its ridiculous, NASA has the launch vehicles of SpaceX contracted for their missions, they are one and the same.
>SpaceX is in a class of its own and trying to compare yourself to them, when you're about a decade behind the curve is silly.
Far more than a decade
>build a nuclear powered space shuttle.
Lol, lmao, lol
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SPX 25 patch
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I still don't get how they wanna deploy Starlinks from S24.
Elon kept saying during the interview that it doesn't require much dV to raise perigee but the sats still can't do that in a single orbit.
So you need to raise perigee, deploy and then lower it again
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https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2022/06/06/dragon-mission-on-hold-as-astronauts-conduct-eye-exams-spacesuit-work/
>NASA and SpaceX are standing down from this week’s Falcon 9 launch of the CRS-25 cargo mission to the International Space Station. Officials from NASA and SpaceX met today to discuss an issue identified over the weekend and the best path forward.
>During propellant loading of the Dragon spacecraft, elevated vapor readings of mono-methyl hydrazine (MMH) were measured in an isolated region of the Draco thruster propulsion system. The propellant and oxidizer have been offloaded from that region to support further inspections and testing. Once the exact source of the elevated readings is identified and cause is determined, the joint NASA and SpaceX teams will determine and announce a new target launch date.
it's over
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>Our Mars rover mission was suspended because of the Ukraine war: here’s what we’re hoping for next
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4398/1
>On March 17, the European Space Agency’s council and member states decided to suspend our mission. We won’t know for sure what happens next until a study by ESA and industry partners reports back in July, but there are causes for optimism.
>Now, ESA is looking at options. Given that continuing with Russia in 2024 is most unlikely, the main possibilities are either ESA going it alone, or teaming up with a partner such as NASA. ESA’s new Ariane 6 rocket, which is nearly ready, could help launch the rover, as could a SpaceX rocket. For the lander and heaters, ESA would need to develop these alone or in collaboration with NASA, by adapting existing technology.
>It could therefore take time. What’s more, because of the way the planets orbit the Sun, there are opportunities for launches to Mars only every two years: in 2024, 2026, and so on. My expectation is that 2028 is most likely for our mission, but it will require hard work. The positive thing is that ESA and the member states are still keen to go ahead, and we are eagerly looking forward to the launch whenever that will be.
pathetic
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>>1808569
Hopefully the SMART reuse system works so that they just reuse the same 4 engines over and over again, they won't even need Blue Origin after the next 3 are delievered!

All seriousness I'm excited about Vulcan. Yeah, SpaceX's rockets are awesome but competition is always healthy in the market and frankly SMART sounds (to my uneducated mind) more robust than ~~suicide burns~~ hoverslams. With SpaceX focusing on Starship, maybe ULA will corner the LEO market with Vulcan?
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>>1808612
Wow
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>>1808612
Wtf eurofags..
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Musk said in the May 26, 2022 Everyday Astronaut video (starting about the 11:15 mark) that "The Starlink 2 satellites are almost an order of magnitude more capable than Starlink 1." Tim followed up asking if he meant bandwidth or total throughput and Musk said "Just think of it like how many useful bits of data can each satellite do. The Starlink 2, in terms of useful bits of data, is almost an order of magnitude better than Starlink 1."

SpaceX, on May 26, 2020, precisely two years earlier, stated to the FCC that "Each initial Gen2 satellite will have three times the data capacity of SpaceX’s current satellites."

How does one square those two statements?

I can think of a couple of things. One, it's been two years and maybe they've made significant advances in the technologies allowing them to go from a 3x improvement to a, let's call it 9x. They haven't filed anything newer with the FCC but perhaps they don't file for changes until after they get approval on the original application. Two, the statements are about two different things. "useful bits of data each satellite can do" sure sounds like the same thing as "data capacity" but maybe I'm missing something.

So that's what I can think of. What do you think (or know). Why are the two claims so different?
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>>1808632
>>1808627
>>1808612
I expect nothing less
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Well bros is june the month we launch?
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https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-mars-colony-delusion-1848839584
https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/v4qvum/elon_musks_plan_to_send_a_million_colonists_to/
>In a recent interview, Elon Musk repeated his stated goal of wanting to transport one million people to Mars by 2050. The SpaceX founder says the future of humanity is at stake, which, okay, but the timeline he offers is ludicrous, and here’s why.
Gizmodo debunked mars colony, and reddit confirms
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watched the Netflix I4 special but for some reason they didn't include Haley demo'ing the dragon toilet..?
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USSF-12: ULA stacks Atlas V rocket for Space Force launch
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Found a good meme template
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>>1798973
>linear aerospike
>bad

Linear aerospike is what they use on their current SSTO spacecraft that have been secret since the 80s.

The secret isn't that we stopped going into space, but its so cheap and affordable the economy / public wouldn't be able to process the fact we have a moon and mars base already.
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>>1802819
Hopefully it wont leak piss behind wall panels like Dragon.

It's cool we have SpaceX but don't be fooled by their sleek looks. A company so focused on image and appearances with somewhat arrogant leader will certainly downplay and suppress serious issues to save face. And i'm afraid it's much easier with their independent, in-house approach, where most of process is under their control and NASA is just a passenger.

So if any ugliness pokes out we better have to ships while one of them fixes their issues.
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>>1803758
While i find it cool that China put's effort into space this copy culture is disappointing. Means we won't see true generational leaps and competitive edge from them, just bigger numbers.
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>>1808638

It’d be easier and cheaper to solve humanitarian issues here, people aren’t going to stop having their problems if on another planet, it’ll just be orders of magnitude more difficult and expensive.

Sure, our long term future may be in the stars, but we are always going to bring our issues with us anywhere we go. We’ll be hairy fiddling monkeys for a long long time still.



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