>https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare>The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base.>A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production.>Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
>>54150159Season this thread
>>54150176>Royal United Services Institute
>>54150159>argument is just another rehash of the same tired bullshit from the 60s in the vein of "we need to churn out loads of cheap shit to get killed by things already better than it"
>>54150176they are not wrong, if russia didn't have tens of millions of stockpiled shells and tens of thousands of vehicles, they would be out of war by now
>>54150159Meanwhile, in reality, Russia is grinding itself to dust battling a nation with the military expenditure of fucking Hawaii. Nobody is buying your shit anymore Ivan, why are you even bothering?
>>54150159>NATO has no production capacity to fight Russiarussia has the same problem, nigger
We have enough industry in place and enough budget, buy some factories, buy some machines, place them there and get to work.
>>54150159russians have industry?
>All these threads. Okay, what happened? When Vatniks flood thenboard is because of something.
>>54150202>>54150226>>54150246>two more weeks for russia to run out of ammowe crossed that 3 months ago
>>54150302every estimate placed in feb 2022 assumed the russians would keep up their frantic assaults and attempts on Kiev
>>54150261Take your pick:- HIMARS have been confirmed to have arrived to Ukraine- Russians failed to close that tiny cauldron- EU confirmed Ukraine (and Moldova) into official EU appliciant status- Shit keeps exploding in russia
>>54150261They lost their northern offensive, and all of their VEHDEHEVH battalion, I'd be coping this hard if the United States lost the entire 101st Airborne 'Screaming Eagles' Division to a country the size of Texas
>>54150302i was literally making your point nigger
>>54150229>buy some factories, buy some machinesfrom martians?Western economy is based on making graphs like yours, in face of total war we are fuckedSoviets used industry outputs as measure of economy, harder to do in free market but doable and I think way more accurate in WW3 scenarioThey make everything they need even if its crap, we make phonecalls and status reports
>>54150342Oh right, and Lithuania is calling russian bluff about Kaliningrad rail
>>54150342>- HIMARS have been confirmed to have arrived to Ukraineall five of them. Literally PR stunt with no real impact on war. Ukraine would need 100+ to make a difference.>- Russians failed to close that tiny cauldronRussians have closed dozens of cauldrons.>- EU confirmed Ukraine (and Moldova) into official EU appliciant statusTurkey has been applicant for 30 years. Even if Ukraine is accepted tomorrow, EU doesn't have Article 5 powers.>- Shit keeps exploding in russiaShit explodes everywhere all the time. Check out food production facilities that magically burnt down in US this year.
>>54150159>prolonged warIt's not really rocket science here. It's so obvious, almost by definition the winner will have better production in a prolonged war.Of course, this is pretty irrelevant to the West. The US has no peer to have a prolonged conventional war with, and the rest of the West has no peer either, either folding against America or BTFOing anything within its regional force projection capabilities. I guess a few of them could scrape together their carriers and send a small force against China for a laugh or vice versa, but that's unlikely to achieve anything conclusive for either side.
>>54150426>Soviets used industry outputs as measure of economy, harder to do in free market but doable and I think way more accurate in WW3 scenariosure helped them win the cold war, didn't it?
>>54150159>Written by Alex Vershinin
>>54150456>all five of them. Literally PR stunt with no real impact on war. Ukraine would need 100+ to make a difference.yes>Russians have closed dozens of cauldrons.no, this is the first one and ukrs have retreated>Turkey has been applicant for 30 years. Even if Ukraine is accepted tomorrow, EU doesn't have Article 5 powers.it does
>>54150426>They make everything they need>For years, Russia has been dealing with lower-level sanctions and working to produce (or smuggle) what it needs. But that process seems to have been a failure — something now admitted by Andrey Klishas, head of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building, who said “the import substitution program has completely failed”, and the only thing that industry heads can boast of is “bravura reports.” Economist and professor at Moscow State University, Natalya Zubarevich, agrees. It is basically impossible to replace anything at the moment.>Similarly, a report by the Higher School of Economics, New Contours of Industrial Policy, notes that key sectors of industry are critically dependent on imports from the EU and US. The authors point out that it will take years to find alternatives, and it is not possible in every sector. For example, the share of imported components in the manufacturing industry reaches 46%, and in some industries, it exceeds half.>The situation is no better in the pharmaceutical industry. The share of imported medicines in 2021 was 67%. At the same time, according to the media, even for so-called Russian drugs the components and production equipment are mostly bought abroad. According to Natalya Zubarevich, 80-85% of the raw materials from which Russian medicines are made are imported.>The same is true in other spheres as well. Imports in the auto parts market compose 95%; games and toys 92%; shoes 87%; telecommunications equipment 86%; clothing 82%; perfumes, cosmetics and detergents 57%, and so on. In April, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko admitted that she was surprised to discover that Russia does not even produce its own nails.https://cepa.org/russia-begins-to-pay-the-price-for-sanctions/
>>54150426>Western economy is based on making graphsDid you not read the fucking graph? Western industrial capacity absolutely dwarfs russia
>>54150456>The EU's Mutual Defence Clause — Article 42.7 in the Treaty of Lisbon — was approved in 2007 and has been in force since 2009.>It states that "if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all means in their power."
>>54150426>Western economy is based on making graphs like yours, in face of total war we are fuckedIf there is a demand for shells and we will pay for them, companies will make more factories for $$$$$It's that simple.
>>54150456>getting that defensiveSo it is all of them?
miss me yet?
>>54150506yeah but daddy Xi is there to help
>>54150456>Turkey has been applicant for 30 years. Even if Ukraine is accepted tomorrow, EU doesn't have Article 5 powers.Turkey is a muslim country with weak rule of law and strong authoritarian and imperialistic tendencies, as long as they elect people such as erdogan they are not fit for EU. To be honest, black sea coast part of Turkey would fit the standards, but the remaining 90% doesn't
>>54150456>Turkey has been applicant for 30 years.nobody ever wanted the roaches though.
The West does though, it's just that you don't want to turn your civilian economy into a war economy unless you really have to.
>>54150456Ah, so you guys are sperging out because of ALL of those things, not any single one.Look, I'm sorry the Path forward has led you into a grave. Maybe don't let a spook become president and you could've avoided this.
>>54150159EU has like 20x the industrial capacity of Russia the fuck are you talking about?
>>54150594but it has 1/100 of russia's stockpiles
>>54150604I assume you can't give any numbers and are just bullshitting.
>>54150622tens of millions of artillery shellstens of thousands of combat vehicles
>>54150632>tens of thousands of combat vehicleskek
>>54150632All the shells and tanks are stored outside. Nor do they have pallets to transport them on, forklifts to move the pallets, or toilets to shit in.1/100 of those vehicles are usable, the rest have been disassembled for scrap.
>>54150650they probably have 10k BMP-1s alone
>>54150632>tens of thousands of combat vehiclesAnd how many of those vehicles are actually functional, and how many of them have either had their interiors gutted by generations of underpaid conscripts searching for something to sell or have rusted to the point of uselessness?
>>54150632Because they say so? Is that why they are sending T-62s to the front when they are supposed to have T-72s left in storage?
>>54150159post new t-14's
>>54150677In russia anything is an combat vehicle. I fully believe there is couple thousand bicycles in russia.
>>54150703t-62 are in better shape than demobilized t-72s. They were still in use up to few years ago
>>54150159Russia lacks combat capacity.
>>54150709these are wagner btw, syria taught them well
>>54150715We have seen plenty of images of unmodernised T-62s.
>>54150743they seem good enough if after 4 months of bashing their heads ukrs can't make a single dent on the kherson front
>>54150426You also believe North Korea is a prosperous, strong nation, right?
>>54150456Ha, your bullshit has no effect anymore.
>>54150159>The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production.Sobering numbers.>>54150176Very reputable source.>>54150203And who are you to say that?>>54150594The problem, as RUSI and every European defence blogger has been trying to point out for literal decades, is that nearly all of that industrial capacity has gone to doing nothing military. With the result that in 2014 Russia felt emboldened enough to invade Crimea and the Donbas, knowing that Europe - its defence budgets and readiness at an ALL TIME LOW - would do nothing, COULD do nothing.>>54150677The same can be said for many of the vehicles in NATO fleets, unfortunately.>>54150475>https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-vershinin-573b1197Idiot.
>>54150769They are within 10 km of the city you you blind fuckhead
>>54150159This is hilarious on so many levels that it's insane. These fuckers are in a stalemate with their own former satellites state armed with surplus cold war nato armaments.And they unironically shit out articles like this.
>>54150809no, they haven't taken kysilievka yet
>>54150549China is doing nothing but talk for Russia.
>>54150800>The same can be said for many of the vehicles in NATO fleets, unfortunately.No, they can't, because EU countries don't keep vehicles in open storage in the tens of thousands.
>>54150810what's hilarious is that you have no clue who the authors are and you unironically talk shit like a clueless nigger
>>54150822China is playing both sides, they will fuck over the russians just as easy as the fuck over the west. >>54150829Okay vatnik.
>>54150834>we can rely on china>don't listen to the "vatniks"okay Zhang
>>54150426>Western economy is based on making graphs like yoursAs if you can trust the commie MSPaint battalions
>>54150823The point is however that readiness levels are low.
The US currently have 40k guided MLRS rockets stockpile alone >muh 60 tomahawk a yearlol
Oh my, the amount of>n-n-n-nooooo fake and gayitt is pretty astounding.Keep it up, /k/opers
>>54150769I didnt realise the front was comprised entirely of unmodernised t62,I cant believe they even got them to fly as well!
Tankies are worse than orcs.
>>54150159>NATO has no production capacity to fightChina, actually, is the conclusion of the articleWhich nobody ITT read.
>>54150883t62 are mainly used in stationary firing emplacements on kherson and zaporozhina front
>>54150867A war time EU conscript with NATO gear and shit training will defeat a russian conscript with russian gear and shit training every day of the week easy, and then some. And that is a fact.
>>54150894>pro long war >against china lollmao
>>54150888>Tankies are worse than orcs.Hate to break it to you, but ISW is also a think tank, nigger.Or is it one of le good think tanks?Pathetic.
>>54150159>Prolonged WarIvan, if we ever feel like it you will be dead and your wife sold into white slavery before you even realize hostilities have started. The conceit you would be able to do jack shit against the first American ATO is laughable. Compare your first day of war sortie rate and BDA findings to what we were able to do with less than an eighth of our current penetrating air assets and less than a twentieth of our current PGM stockpile to Iraq 30 years ago. Sad part is 1991 Iraq had a more formidable total force than you will have after Ukraine. Whomp Whomp
>>54150632>tens of thousands of combat vehiclesMight as well brag they have tens of thousands of horses for cavalry when fighting an actual modern army lol
>>54150159>they don't know about our 24/7 operating fully-automated deep-mountain ammunition factories that turn trucks of raw material into trucks of gps-guided 155mm
>>54150942>if we ever feel like it you will be dead and your wife sold into white slavery before you even realize hostilities have started>I could end you right there>I could>I should>I would>and all the ifs and butsYou Johns are all talk and like zero walk. Wake me up when boots on the ground in Ukraine.
It would be a huge problem if NATO (US) countries fought war like the Russians do.The US going toe to toe with Russia would involve American airpower going absolutely bananas on any Russian piece of machinery that produced a radio or heat signature.Russian missile systems, armor, air forces, navy, etc would have to deal with an angry swarm of bees that they cannot reach or sometimes even see before getting btfo.From what we’ve seen in this war, Russia can’t even counter the most basic and ancient Soviet made defensive or offensive systems or strategies. How would they counter a giant wall of sensor fused air squadrons being fed intel from sci-fi tier SIGINT/ELINT systems?
>>54150159The Russians would run out of materiel long before we do. Because our shit WORKS.
>Vatniggers fell for the classic "HOLY SHIT GUYS IF WE DONT GET 600000 KABILLION WE ALL DIE F35S ON MARS NOWWWW" MIC trickYou really think a British military think tank is fudding?
>>54150914The writer assumes that China will step up and start sending weapons if ruskies seem to start running out in Ukraine. Which I guess is possible(even if unlikely) considering how crazy the world has been lately. And then the writer makes assumption that it will become practically an industrial arms race between china and the west on who can send more shit. Another sort of silly assumption considering china would be practically arming its enemy on the long run, but I guess chinks can be that rarted. And then there is the conclusion that there is no enough military industrial capacity remaining in the west (due the cut costs since the cold war) and that the west would be unwilling and that it would be too difficult to turn civilian industry into military industry if necessary. Which may be possible, and I guess there should be planning to be done how that could be done in the most efficient and quick way.
>>54150604But their stockpiles probably actually work and haven't been sold off fornvodka
>>54150159>reposting this rubbish after you get btfo every other time
>>54150800Somebody post that picture showing Russian missiles had a 30% accuracy rating while the US had 98% of targets hit. The US navy alone has 4000 tomahawks.
>>54151012God, Desert Storm still gives me a stiffy just thinking about it. It was the result of an entire military alliance being blue-balled about a world war for half a century, and finally getting a chance to cut loose now that the Soviets were out of the picture.
>>54150924You are an idiot. You really don't know what tankie means?
>>54150829Maybe use some critical thinking and stop using an appeal to authority as your argument.
>>54150426Is this a joke? Russia makes nothing fucking nothing. And haalf the Soviet heavy industry was in the Ukraine. What you fail to realize, is even if they did have capacity for heavy industries they have no ability to make complex systems.
>>54151106>muh appeal to authorityOh well, there goes the entire Western education system then.
>>54151069So, in technical parlance, buncha o'bullshit.
>>54151117no, it's a realistic albeit improbable scenario. chinks have a lot to gain from vassalizing russia
>>54150800>Sobering numbers.PRSM only just entered production, JASSM has a stockpile of over 9k per GAO, Tomahawk production has switched from making new missiles to converting the stockpile to Tactical Tomahawks. This is all during peace time, the article is complete fucking trash. Meanwhile Russia has shown itself incapable of producing even laser guided artillery in meaningful numbers, their cruise missiles keep missing targets and Iskander continues to fail to fuse or simply outright misses its targets.
>>54151117It's okay if the article is too complex for you to understand.
>>54150979>Fight me on the ground! It's not fair! Why don't I have legs or arms anymore!Nothing personal, kid.
>>54151096/k/ is being flooded with telegram tourists
>>54151138>the article is complete fucking trashOkay, and how many missiles do the Chinese have stockpiled?
>>54150979>vatnik crying about about being all talklel
>>54151168>no argumentShow me their verified production numbers that prove they have a larger stockpile.
>>54151144>Rossya STRONK.Oh, yes, the flower of irrefutable logic and Iron clad interpretation of data.
>>54151185it's about chinx not russia
>>54150159We have 4,500 nuclear weapons ready for deployment at any given moment
I'm surprised there are even Russian who think Russia has even a snowball's chance in hell to survive a war against the west after this dismal display in Ukraine. Russia has thus far shown us that they:- are unable to conduct combined arms operations - have an incredibly incompetent air force - suffer hugely from ghost numbers, in active troops and equipment storage- have zero opsec, rely on unencrypted communications channels- have incompetent leadership like any other 3rd world authoritarian state, on pretty much all levels of command ladder- are rampantly kleptocratic to the point of it impacting operational ability - lack industrial capacity and skill to even produce early 2000s level of tech- have such bad morale that senior officers have to go to the frontline to get the troops moving As things stand Russia would lose a war to Poland alone.
>>54151194Yes, the CCP will destroy the economy of China, the only thing that gives them legitimacy, because they best buds with King Monke.
>>54151255china taking control of russian resources would be the most self sufficient country in the world. They have a lot to gain, and chinese are bred for obedience
>>54151150>>54151180>Johns are at it again>Now now, if we’re to REALLY to…Why not do I then, niggers? Oh, the humanity, poor Ukrainians, however they will defend themselves!Face it, you do have the opportunity to “finish” (heh) us, and yet you chose to half ass it.Do it. Make our demise in Ukraine an utter obliteration.You won’t tho. Cuz youse a bunch of pussies who need excuses.Keep talking tho while we kill more Ukrainians.
>>54151131I think it's a mistake to think of the west as some sort of giant monolith, as this conflict has shown. You have some actors that would hesitate, but the USA would absolutely lose its shit if China started to arm Russia.
>>54151267Everybody thinks so, China will gobble up Shitholeland, but is it as easy as people think?
>>54151183You'll assume superiority until you read some numbers Beijing shows you?Interesting way to do threat analysis.>>54151185>muh interpretation of dataYou couldn't even parse a simple article.
>>54151285Why aren't you at the front?
>>54151311they are winning without doing anything. Whatever the outcome of this war china has already won
>>54151267Sure, but you have to think about how china can do that the best.Would be re-arming russia in the best chinese interest when it would also anger their best customers? Or should china just buy everything valuable inside russia while it is cheap due westerners leaving? That option would not even piss off the west.
>>54150159>The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. the author didn't do enough research.>Since the first M270s were delivered to the U.S. Army in 1983, the MLRS has been adopted by several NATO countries. Some 1,300 M270 systems have been manufactured in the United States and in Europe, along with more than 700,000 rockets.>In 2020 the Navy has around 4,000 Tomahawks. So the US NAVY alone has enough cruise missiles to match Russia's entire military force, and probably more accurate too because they can afford to maintain them and upgrade them.
>>54151328Why go, might I ask?
>>54151307>the USA would absolutely lose its shit if China started to arm RussiaThe very point the article makes is "so what? Can the US outproduce China?"But nobody read the article of course, which is why it took this many posts to reach this level of comprehension.
>>54151346>"author didn't do enough research">former Lt Col at US Army Future Command
>>54151348>The very point the article makes is "so what? Can the US outproduce China?"Which is kind of dumb point. All you need is enough bombs to wreck the industrial capacity of your opponent.
not gonna readbut there's a difference between production and production capacitysuck a cock
>>54150159>RUSSSIA STILL STROOOOOOONKlmao will you retards just bury your heads even deeper into the sand now?
>>54151343the west cannot afford to ditch chinese manufacturing and russia has no other choice but to do unfavorable for them deals with china. Chinese are the biggest winners of this war, they have secured russian resources and superiority over their economy
>>54151381Are you saying that people in the US military are infallible and incapable of doing poor research on a topic?
>>54151311>but is it as easy as people thinkruskies hate chinks and vice versa, both think the other side are the real subhumans
>>54151429>lmao will you retards just bury your heads even deeper into the sand now?>/k/ope board post
>>54151381>muh appeal to authorityarticles like these are written all the time to extract more military funding. Meanwhile...>JASSM has a stockpile of over 9k per GAO>US navy alone has 4k>US airforce has who knows how13k+ > 4k
>>54151348>>54151381Honestly he looks at industrial capacity as if it exists in a void, which isn't true. If China starts supplying Russia with arms there is a high likelihood USA starts imposing financial sanctions on China. Chinese leadership understand this and may decide that whatever they would gain from a Russian win in Ukraine would not be worth the potential damage to their already vulnerable economy.
>>54150159hello recurring thread
>>54151435That it is. But eh, I will just enjoy misery of ruskies when they have to kiss yellow chink ass. Nothing else in this world really brings me more pleasure than ruskies getting shat on.
>>54151442I'm saying between the author and the anon who can't understand a simple article and still thinks it's about Russia, I think I trust the author morealso, given his job scope, you'd think he knows a thing or two about enemy capabilities>>54151461Okay sure. There is nothing to fear. Just keep on keeping on.>>54151471They don't have to do it openly. They can do it quietly, like how they've been arming ISIS, and the US will not call them out for it because there's no stomach for taking action against China.
>>54151319Considering your entire argument is that 'China produces more despite having fewer delivery vehicles available', I think it's entirely reasonable to ask for you to provide some verifiable information before continuing this conversation.
>>54151542>fewer delivery vehiclesWhat, of missiles?I dunno, anon, which do you think more likely; that China will keep churning out Type 55s or that the US Navy will start growing destroyer and SSN numbers?
>>54151150>Thinking we ever hated you beside the memesYou would flip the table with nukes about 3 hours into the no-lube fisting and then we would have to wipe you from existence because ~5% of your nukes were able to launch without blowing up and penetrate ABMD. Did you ever consider you're still alive because we don't want the moral weight of exterminating your civilization? Russia could be a great country. They made a real game of it during the Space race and Cold War and produced some of the greatest literature and music ever made. Americans don't hate Russians more than Yankee fans hate Boston and vice versa. Our view has always been the people are fine, just the government sucks. No reason to loose 5+ million Americans to nuclear leakers and be forced to exterminate people we respect so your government can save face. So we will just keep cucking you with proxy forces. As is traditional. Bring a reasonable fucking Tzar back already. You guys are submissive as fuck, you need a real monarch not these oligarchs
>>54151565It's easier to just say you don't have anything to back up your claim.
>>54151471>vulnerable economy>US GDP by sector 2021: agro industry services rest/ 1%;19%;77%;3%>CHINA GDP by sector 2021: same, 7%;39%;53%;1%Resource-wise it’s not looking that good.
>>54150159>two near-peer powersgood thing Russia isn't a near peer?
>>54151595Pearls before swine.
>>54150159Russia only industry is literally pumping oil out of the ground and getting ores out of the ground.
>>54150159How much of actual modern hardware does Russia produce?
>>54151672None. But the article is about china that goes full retard.
>>54151600China's economy is vulnerable because it's in a giant bubble that may or may not burst.
>>54151680My biggest worry about China is the fact that they produce everything else too. Especially microchips if they take Taiwan.
>>54151721Little known fact: the machines that make both factories, factory tools and those chips are bought the EU.
>>54151721We could turn Mexico into a friendlier China if we cared. Or Brazil. Seriously also with our demographics getting cozier economically to Christian LatAm Nations would be a bad idea. Better Pedro or Alberto gets the money becausr theyll also stay in their countries. We dont rely on China, mass immigration slows a lot as we could probably encourage Mexico to police their side harder, hispanics get a higher standard of living. China gets to be schizo about it. Everyone wins
>>54151702finances are an abstract layer on top of physical reality. And the reality is that china has factories, workers and resources to churn out countless pieces of war materiel.
>>54151784Wouldnt be a bad idea*
>>54151793Where do you think our appliances and cars get built? Theres more than just China out there.
>>54151743and the well know fact is that china has demonstrated countless times their ability to copy everything they set their mind on. I remind you that 30 years ago they were producing cheap t-shirts and toxic toys and now they are building processors and launching satellites and aircraft carriers.
>>54151784>mexico>brazilno and no. Not the right culture, not the right people or genes.
>>54151743I spoke with a dude who used to work for a consulate in Russia, he said basically all the sanctions we threw at them back in 2014 just shifted the import of stuff like dairy products to the machinery to make said dairy products which we also produced.
>>54151793In the same sense that money is abstract, yes. That doesn't mean losing all your money is nonessential.
>>54150549Xi didn't do shit for Russia in this war so far.
>>54151852chinese are obedient and under tight information control, they can be ordered to operate under war economy way easier than westerners
>>54151838You see what Mexicans can do in shitty conditions? A lot of them can work hard. For fucks sake the people who shoot up Chicago weekly are the same people who toiled in the southern heat.
>>54151875do you think majority of mexicans have mental faculties to run a microchip factory?
>>54151892They're assembling Teslas in Texas, may as well keep them in Mexico.
>>54151892Judging by the quality of rear differentials in Mexican made Chevies, no.
>>54151858he doesn't have to. He's already the biggest winner in this conflict.
>>54151910If he doesn't get backstabbed by the very mad Shanghai Gang at some point. Problem is Xi fucks the economy up and its the profit motivated liberal commies that run China.
>>54151907They made my Mazda 3 and it's pretty fucking good.
>>54151924we'll see. I think that the general assembly of the communist party is soon
>>54151870Chinks are obedient as long as the economy is doing well and the emperor has the mandate.Lose that and chinks are going to do the bloodiest civil war seen in human history fucking second time.
>>54151870Yes but to pretend that money doesn't matter sounds like something out of Mao's failed communists reforms. Being stranded with a bunch of inoperable iPhone factories is hardly useful to the Chinese state when active ones produce income that the CCP can use to purchase whatever they deem necessary, such as military materiel.
>>54151870The Chinese love their cell phones and fast food. The problem is Xi wants China to be culturally in the 50s whereas the liberals of China westernized the Chinese. More now refuse to work like slaves, choosing to min effort life.
>>54150159its a good thing Russia has no military left to fight NATO
>>54151680>it's about china>OP explicitly says russiathis is so tiresome
>>54151988>>54151955>>54151950those are all good points on top of the biggest problems china faces that nobody mentionedtheir demographic pyramid is FUBAR
>>54150202>>54150159Here's the discussion.Russia has, on paper, around 10k tanks and 33k armored carriers. They've lost all of the currently functioning shit upfront and are now beginning to operationalize their mothball fleet. This would be the equivelant of if the US got into a prolonged war with china, lost a few aircraft carriers and all of their 5th gen and most of their 4th gen aircraft, and began pulling aircraft and tooling out of mothball status and operationalizing it. If anything, the combination of US Intelligence, US Weaponry, and US command on the ground has been a massive force multiplier against Russia for the Ukies and has been far, far more effective than anyone could have planned or predicted, and with 1\10th of what we've shipped in total and 1\100th of what we've promised, the Ukies managed to bomb Belgorod.I don't think anyone here has an understanding of war so let me make this clear. In general, once you start killing people's countrymen, and especially in the kind of demographic warfare the Russians are engaging in right now where they fully intend to encircle, seige and extinguish the majority of the civillian population in order to pacify it, those people are going to want to return the favor in kind. If US Weapons were in Ukraine right now in full force, The Ukies would have Zelensky in a cocaine fuelled frenzy publicizing the execution of Russian Citizenry in his gimp suite with a fucking US Made .50 cal deagle and threatening them with tit for tat. The US and Europe don't believe this is good for stability, ergo, they're holidng back the weapons. Meantime, Russia is going for odessa with everything it has.>>54150584>>54150634Don't bring your Fucking European Baggage onto an American Mongolian basketweaving forum you fucking Sandniggers.
>>54150518Yes, but over the course of like 10 years>firms have to be assured that they are going to be able to make fucktons of shells for decades, not just until the latest meme war ends, so they don't get left holding the bag on brand new munitions factories>gotta get like 4000 certifications, inspections, zoning allowances, ecological impact studies, Indian burial site relocations etc. to start breaking ground.>gotta develop a skilled industrial workforce that won't fucking blow up the factory through laziness or incompetence.You can't just pop this shit up overnight even for just dumb munitions, let alone the good stuff.
>>54152056>US got into a prolonged war with china*with Canada
>gun ownership in your country=BAD>free guns for noble Ukrainians=GOOD
>>54152178>gun ownership in your country=you are going to shoot up a school>free guns for noble Ukrainians=ukies are going to rid world of vatniks which is a net benefit for the whole human race
>>54152107Yes, I can totally see them building 20000mm howizers to shoot live hypersonic steatlh-seeking moose with nuclear maple syrup suppositories capible of converting our entire airforce into Tim Hortons Donuts and Coffee which would rain from the sky for weeks over the entirety of Ottowa and Quebec. Greenpeace would be sueing to end the war in order to prevent mass wildlife dieoff from lethal food-borne diabetus and caffiene shock.
>>54152056>US Intelligence, US Weaponry, and US command on the ground has been a massive force multiplier against Russia for the UkiesFucking delusional clowns living in the fairyland, none of these things are real. Not in the way your ill brain imagines it.>US IntelligenceWhich part, the clowns that were claiming Moskva is heading to port under its own power hours before the russians admitted it had sunk, or the clowns who were predicting that the Afghan army was capable of fending off the Talibs for years? The US intelligence is Russian MoD tier and provides zero meaningful help to the ukies. You're a fucking mental child if you imagine a scenario where magical NATO satellites deliver real-time intel to ukies that they couldn't have gotten from reading some OSINT autist's twitter and makes them win battles they would've lost otherwise. >US WeaponryIn token thoughts-and-prayers level quantities. It's obviously better than nothing, especially now when both sides are massively attrited it works like a straw that breaks the camel's back. But the west is absolutely guilty of prolonging this war for months and killing thousands of ukie soldiers and civilians by not providing them with the weaponry they were asking for since 4 months before the start of the war.>US command on the groundTake your meds.
>>54150159>near-peer powers Yes, that would be the Ukraine-Rasha war of independence/war of enslavement
>>54150555>black sea coast part of Turkey would fit the standardst. retardDo you mean the Aegean and Marmara coasts or are you completely clueless?
>>54152056>Meantime, Russia is going for odessa with everything it has. So it is ogre in a stalemate. Because what you see is what you get. Odessa is a monke dream and they even got Kherson only thanks to internal judases not because of their military stronkness.
>>54152302go ahead. invade a real country
>>54150159>implying rusniggers have the mil industry>being cut off from western components and can't do shit vatnik shills are really delusional and retarded
>>54152193Venezuela( ir we kill maduro, Diosdado,etc),colombia, argentina and Panamá would be very good opcions,most of them are alredy industrialise and competent labor force, but they have shitty heads of state (wich has always been the curses of south america ,the caudillismo)
>>54152383what are they killing the ukies with then? Harsh words?
>>54151592>Our view has always been the people are fine, just the government sucks Monke is a direct manifestation of the russian "people". He has always been popular and american sentiment about being mistrustful and independent from the government is a exception, not the rule. In centuries old autocratic shitpiles like Rasha the tzar has always been the be all, end all, holy demigod spirit with the state being seen as the great wife beater to keep the submissive slaves in check.
>>54152302lol at this cope, even after gerasimov got blown up within 30 minutes of arriving at the front. US intel is terrifying. But don't worry, I'm sure that china's fleet of fishing trawlers and the russian army of T-62 and ironsight AKs can defeat a country that operates more jets than the rest of the world combined
>>54150491who was it that had a video on Russian "import substitution" where the governor had won a medal for setting up a tractor factory that just got Complete Knock-Down kits from a Czech manufacturer (meaning, the tractor was "made" in Russia but every single part came prepackaged from the Czech manufacturer with a set of IKEA instructions)
>>54150159>near-peerVatniks are delusional
>>54150203The article writer was an American, Alex Vershinin.
Usa doesn't need weapons they can just apply more sanctions to help the Russians economy . Once the war on Ukrainian and Americans is won by the usa then the usa will surrender and start a new war again't someone else to lose against
>>54152302The point at which Russia's fate was sealed was not the fall of the USSR but when the KGB Decided to not educate everyone. Case in point...epic cope.>>54152341I have no doubt they'll take the whole country. The question is timeframe and cost. The fundemental problem with Mothball fleets is you don't know what condition they are really in until you start prooving them out; all the old engineers and craftsmen that built their T72 fleet are long dead. You need to likely at minimum re-gasket the engine and drivetrain, check over the wiring, lubricate everything, check for corrosion on wear surfaces, fix any lingering issues, put a fresh coat of paint on em' and upgrade them as best you can and then don't forget you've got to train everyone and setup secure comms. There are oh so many ways operationalizing thousands of those tanks can go wrong, and it's a platform the West understands and has thorough intel on.I assume they'll probably get Odessa before the end of this year, and will be working on Kiev the year after. This is assuming they trigger now on mass mobilization. You never know. And I am beyond sure the US intellgence will know the exact number of tanks being fielded.
>>54152714CNN had one from a SIMS game
>>54150159>>Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.??????????? Ito manufacturing its China, US, JPN, GER, [powergap of 11 mostly NATO countries], Russia. While 99% of the munitions the Russians are firing off are cold-war era stockpiles. Most Russian gunners are firing off shells that are older than they are. What the fuck is this absolute nonsense?
>>54152774>I assume they'll probably get Odessa before the end of this yearThey are advancing <10km a week anon and they are already starting to dip into their supplies of T62's.
>>54152302>>US Intelligence, US Weaponry, and US command on the ground has been a massive force multiplier against Russia for the Ukies>Fucking delusional clowns living in the fairyland, none of these things are real.So the Russians are so fucking incompetent the Ukranians are pulling this off on their own?
>>54152774>I have no doubt they'll take the whole country. The question is timeframe and cost.This isn't a Grand Strategy game. How is Russia going to HOLD IT after it has 'taken the whole country'. With what troops? With what tanks? With what aircraft? With what money?>>54152801American trying to get money for his buddies in the MIC by implying they need to ramp up now.
OP is a fag, but he's not wrong. You propagandized non-engineer normalfaggots have no idea about the absolute state of US manufacturing in 2022.
>>54152824>You propagandized non-engineer normalfaggots have no idea about the absolute state of US manufacturing in 2022.The second biggest in the world and growing so fast that there is currently a worker shortage of 400 000 people that is projected to be well over a million by the end of the decade?
>>54152824Everything is decentralized a lot of production is china. Small arms are better off because of gun ownership in America
>>54152714>>54152795samefag here, not a video, this twitter threadhttps://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388
>>54152843>>54152855Keep coping faggots. We're entirely dependent on foreign imports, many from china, because our domestic industry has collapsed. Automotive industry: collapsed. Aircraft industry: currently in freefall. Steel industry: collapsed. Semiconductors: offshored. Textiles: offshored. Shipbuilding: collapsed. It's the same story anywhere you look, but keep posting propaganda about "Joe Biden's best economy ever!!!!"We're not able to procure new military equipment in a timely and cost effective manner because we no longer have the manufacturing base to support it. We have no way of replacing our cold war era equipment in a peer conflict.
they also said russia was a superpower
>>54152818Prewar there was ~41m or so people in Ukraine. I expect in 2-3 years there's going to be less than 10m. 6m-8m have already fled to Poland and elsewhere. How does that happen? You use thermobaric weapons to wipe out population centers and at that point you are using tanks against guerilla fighters. Not going to say it won't be expensive for them, but they have the material and population to pull it off. Understand, this is not a german style occupation of France. This is a "wipe out 90% of the population, anyone who was loyal moved to Russia when the conflict started" deal. Also don't write capitulation off the table.
>>5415179330 iq take
>>54151830Of which non was possible without western know how
>>54150426>SovietsSoviets fucking got carried by US giving them hundreds of thousands of vehicles lel
>>54153106it doesn't matter if they copied your work if you're dead
>>54152988>Keep coping faggots. We're entirely dependent on foreign imports, many from china, because our domestic industry has collapsedYes, that is the narrative you are here to spread. Reality is that the US is the second biggest manufacturer on the planet and that the manufacturing sector is growing so fast that its now outstripping the supply of labor. >We're not able to procure new military equipment in a timely and cost effective manner because we no longer have the manufacturing base to support it.Because its in low-rate production because the US is not at war and building shit to send straight to storage is pointless and costly?
>>54153086So you rule over land that is depopulated and has nobody to make use of the land? GENIUS. Those farms and oil fields will just work themselves!>W-w-well they'll get them from RussiaThe Russia with a terrible population rate? To go to a bombed out, war torn country to work? Really?
>>54153125If you copy the smartest kid in class all you learn is how to copy and you will never learn to be smarter than him. Engaging in ludicrous amounts of IP theft and then leveraging slave labor is not something to be proud of, especially as that pool of slave labor is about to dry up.
>>54153019They easily defeated the combined forces of nato that makes Russia a superpower
>>54153128Boeing is going to need a government bailout in the next 12 months. How does this make you feel, copeposter?
>>54153181>How does this make you feel, copeposter?Pretty good because you've gone from telling lies about industrial capacity to rambling about the mismanagement of Boeings commercial line.
>Russians are going all out again>for over 12 hours Something real bad has happened.
>>54153195You're using massaged numbers to lie with statistics. You're not even an engineer. You're probably one of those Eglin AFB glowniggers that doesn't even have a college degree. If you had seen the sorry state of our industrial base then you would be singing a different tune. Our country's economy is an empty shell based on trading pieces of paper with each other.
>>54153159That's like an MMA fighter complaining someone stole their signature move after they got knocked out. Nobody fucking cares because you've already lost by that point.
>>54153248You're not even saying anything, you just keep saying>US industry is fucked trust me I'm an engineer that makes me an expert Just shut up or post something of substance you gigga faggot
>>54153275>That's like an MMA fighter complaining someone stole their signature move after they got knocked out.No. Its like copying IP and never building design capacity while at the same time creating socio-environmental conditions which drive your best and brightest to your competitors.
>>54153258Here you go, nigger. Now post yours.
>>54153248>when you can't quantify, cope -t. fake engineerPost your PE seal, nigger. 51% odds you're a methed out machinist acting up.
>>54150571Pretty much this at least the Americans should have the capabilities to make that switch rather fast if needed. Not sure how much this goes for Europe. The problem with that however since it is a reactionary tactic is that you are pretty much always too late. Which can go either way I guess, it might not matter much or it might matter a lot and will make you lose the war before you even started. Granted your opponent is in fact already armed to the teeth
>>54151131They have also a lot to loose from sanctions, and they can make russia their bitch after the war when is has to recover, regardless of the outcome.
>>54153297You have no idea what you're talking about, and no reason why anyone should listen to your opinion.>>54153342>posting the chart with nominal dollarsNow post the one adjusted for inflation, faggot. I dare you.
>>54153452>You have no idea what you're talking about, and no reason why anyone should listen to your opinionProjection in its purest form>inb4 he spams I'm an engineer!! for the 5th time this thread
>>54153333Cool. Now engineering degree.
>>54153342>>54153498I've posted it here before whenever /k/'s forklift drivers start to get uppity, but currently I'm in the process of unpacking in a new state, so the best I can give you at the moment are a couple of my old textbooks. Take it or leave it, but it doesn't make me any less right. Post your stamp too while you're at it.
>>54153608So, no degree then?
>>54150159Russia has no production capacity to fight ukraine so I think we'll be ok
>>54153644Search the catalog for discussions about the Kriss Vector and how its magical hypebeast technology allows it to violate the law of conservation of momentum. I've posted my license a few times in there.
>>54150426>WE PRODUCE HARD GOODS>WEST PRODUCES NOTHING OF VALUE WHEN IT COMES PUSH TO SHOVEthis is as much cope as >the americans will break at pearl harbour due to superior japanese fighting spirit!
>>54150426German https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/61/export-basketRussian https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/186/export-basket
>>54153672err, *archive, not catalog
>>54151069The chinks have always been opportunists at heart, they'll bet on the horse they think will win
>>54150159and russia only has production capacity to produce low tier copes like this
>>54150176Lmao, get a load of this dumb bitch
>>54151238>are unable to conduct combined arms operationsdoesn't matter russian artillery have more vitamins than western space
>>54153672>>54153684So, no degree?
>>54153750I'm moving. It's in a box somewhere. What do you want me to do? You haven't posted guns OR your stamp OR your degree, you dumb glownigger.
Russia is to the United States, as the United States is to China. Cope, seethe, and dial8.
>>54153776I dont claim to own guns or be an engineer.
>>54153797>can't post guns>isn't an Eglin AFB glowniggerdoubt.jpg
>>54153806>I know! I'll ramble about glowies! That will convince people that I am a totally sane normal person.
>>54153830Why are you on /k/ if you don't own guns? Seems a little odd, don't you think?
>>54153850Who says I dont own guns? Mr Engineer, your English isnt very good.
>>54153860Then post guns to prove you're not a noguns shill.
>>54151838Have you ever seen how hard Mexicans can work? It’s insane.
>>54153872Why would I post guns on the internet?Why would a shill for a government agency not have access to guns so he can post guns when challenged? Mr Engineer, you're not very savvy.
>>54153909Feds aren't permitted to post anything that could potentially compromise their personal info, you dumb reddit-spacing shill.
>>54153936>Feds aren't permitted to post anything that could potentially compromise their personal infoWhy would they post their own guns? Why would they not post an agency gun? Mr Engineer, you're not very savvy or very smart.
>>54152302The US knew everything the Russians were going to do as far as intent to launch a war and said so publicly. Every proRussian faggot moron said “oh no, that’s just American fearmongering” and then Russia invaded - exactly as the State Department said they would.
>>54150426The CCP would sacrifice five hundred million infants to Baal for this chart to have China written at the top
>>54153954I'm still not seeing your timestamped firearms. The fact that you don't understand /k/'s principle of "post guns", combined with your reddit spacing, makes it pretty obvious that you're not from around here. Go shill somewhere else, glownigger.
>>54153988If I were a glownigger would I not have posted a gun knowing full well that my shilling would eventually entail me having to post a gun?
>>54154009No, you wouldn't have, because glowniggers can't post guns. Now post guns you fucking newfag shill.
>>54153973I wonder if Baal accepts animal sacrifices.
>>54154009Post a non-standard-issue firearm with a timestamp.
>>54154022Like how undercover cops have to say they are cops if you ask them?
>>54154076Holy shit, how new are you?
>>54153960The usa literally started the war but fortunately they spend all their time having anal sex and genociding white Americans so they quickly lost to Russia
>>54154087You dont understand that I am mocking your views on glowniggers?
>>54154150>I was only pretending to be retardedpost guns faggot
>>54154165You really did not understand the implication of the post?Mr Engineer, this is getting embarrassing.
>>54154094This is the worst bait I've ever seen. Try again, faggot.
>>54154189>more reddit spacing>more not posting gunsgood morning bhenchod sir do the needful and post guns my basterd
>>54154165Not that guy, but holy shit man, I actually believe that you're an engineer, because only an engineer could obsess this much about pointless minutiae while failing to make a substantiative point.
>>54154231Why would I post guns? A fed would, a fed has nothing to fear.
>>54154235The earnest voice shill faggot can either follow /k/ SOP and post guns, or he can fuck off. It's that simple. I don't tolerate any shilling on /k/, whether it's burger shilling, gopnik shilling, or bugman shilling.
>>54154265>literal noguns shitting up the boardfuck off nigger
>>54154279>I don't tolerate any shilling on /k/, whether it's burger shilling, gopnik shilling, or bugman shilling.Your thoughts on this kind of shilling? >>54152988 >>54152824
>>54154279Yeah. Definitely an engineer. Unwarranted self importance mixed with fart-sniffing.
>>54150159>>The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base.So, not Russia, then.
>>54154265Why are you so afraid to post your guns, my totally organic friend? The longer you make excuses the worse it looks.
>>54154285You own an LCP, you're practically nogunz yourself.
>>54154306You're saying I am a fed and part of a massive conspiracy, yet I dont have the ability to post guns?And this is not in any way contradictory to you?
>>54153333>LCPSo... you're saying an engineer doesn't understand all the problems with this little piece of shit/can't afford to buy something that isn't garbage?
>>54153680produce nothing of value when push comes to shove? have these retards forgotten we made the atom bomb and then threw two of them at little shit cities like it was nothing? the fuck did russia do? get its shit pounded in and only make it through because of sheer numbers and the tactical ineptitude of hitler? wow, what a great people.
>>54154292I already proved I'm not a shill >>54153333. Now post guns, shillnigger.
>>54154342Not that guy, but that doesn't prove you aren't a shill, man. That proves you have an LCP and a ballpoint pen and some graphing paper.Hell, that doesn't even prove you're an engineer.
>>54154309>>54154330Like I said, I'm still unpacking in my new place. I only have my pocket CCW out at the moment.
>>54153086You are an absolute retard
>>54154342>I already proved I'm not a shillYet you shill. Strange.
>>54154363So far nobody else has posted guns, or their degree, or their PE stamp. Just me.
>>54154371It's not shilling if it's an organic post that I'm not paid for, you nigger. Now post your guns you colossal niggerfaggot.
>>54154379No one else has been making claims they won't back up, duder.
>>54154388>It's not shilling if it's an organic post that I'm not paid for, you niggerIt is shilling if you're mindlessly pushing ideas implanted in your head by shills. Anons responded to you with an ocean of evidence of how wrong you are and you responded with, and I quote>I am an engineer!>glowniggers!>EVERYONE POST GUNS!
>>54154393I gave you my textbooks. You have done literally nothing to back up your claims.
>>54154408So what you're saying is "TRUST THE EXPERTS!!!!" You glow brighter than the sun you dumb nigger. Go back to your /meg/ shill thread.
>>54154432>I gave you my textbooks.Only engineers may posses these books?
>>54154445Do you even know what FEA is?
>>54154444>So what you're saying is "TRUST THE EXPERTS!!!!"No, thats what you're saying here>>54152824>You propagandized non-engineer normalfaggots have no idea about the absolute state of US manufacturing in 2022.and here >>54153248>You're using massaged numbers to lie with statistics. You're not even an engineer.
>>54154432I haven't made any claims. You're arguing with multiple people.The problem is that as an onlooker, I find your claims spurious and your qualifications in doubt, not to mention your constant attempts to shift responsibility for your credentials onto others to be so simpleminded that I'm shocked you're able to string two sentences together.
>>54154461>Do you even know what FEA is?Finite element analysis. Two clicks on google and its written on the book here >>54153608
>>54150176fpbpThese morons are only taken seriously in bongland.inb4 buttblasted bongs.
>>54150800Vershinin is a russian name>b-but he is american Yeah sure you also would trust Junfeng into some Defence Industry Project. They never integrated, we have good experience about this in Yuro.
>>54154463>if you question my factually bullshit propaganda then you're a shill>>54154466Again, I have done more to post my credentials than anyone else in this thread.>>54154473That's what the acronym stands for, but it isn't what I asked. Explain to me in your own words what it's used for, and more importantly, how it works.
>>54154560>Again, I have done more to post my credentials than anyone else in this thread.You posted books and a shit tier gun after multiple people told you why your points were badly thought out.These aren't "credentials".
>>54154596If that's more than you've posted, then what does that say about you?
>>54150159Is he basing his numbers on peacetime weapon production?
>>54150159Neither does RussiaThey're having to spray WD-40 on everything and rush it off to the front lines
>>54154613Again, my noble midwit, I haven't made any claims. I'm trying to get you to substantiate your claims to some kind of superior status since they are so central to your argument, yet you won't.Alternatively, I want you to revisit the people who've argued against you and respond with something other than "I'M AN ENGINEER!"Or, as is increasingly more likely "LOL I TROL U"
>>54150555Turkey was briefly in an accelerated process but they chose to steal land instead and it was suspended. It is dishonest to pretend it takes 30+ years. Why do Vatniks lie constantly?
>>54154613>Making a couple of posts saying US industry is fucked without any good reasoning or arguments >People call you out>Waste 30 posts about credentials you can't even prove you have instead of backing up your claimsEngineer or not you are a massive faggot, and undoubtedly a sperg with full blow autism. I would rather talk to a shill because at least they can be funny on accident.
>>54154649>>54154716You're the one focusing on my degree. Each time I bring up specific argument, each of you try to deflect. I dare you to look up the US market share of critical strategic industries like shipbuilding and steel production. If you adjust the nominal value of US manufacturing output for the producer price index to account for inflation, it's pretty obvious that US manufacturing has completely imploded.
>>54153130>>54154369Yes, that's the point. Plug the land gaps and make them as defensible as possible. See Picrel. Everyone knows that.Let me point out how this entire war is going to play out so you "get it".NATO is playing to bleed them out so they destabilize internally and can't maintain the long-range nuclear arsenal they currently have. Sanctions and a military demographics bleed out will accomplish that over time. The net end goal isn't to kill Russia entirely, but to prevent direct NATO Conflict and weaken their long-reach nuclear arsenal so we don't have to deal with them for the next 2-3 generations. By then we'll have reliable solutions and they'll be largely de-industrialized without western support.Later this year their oil wells are expected to freeze over and will crude stop flowing. At some point someone's going to bomb a natgas pipeline if and when the conflict expands. Lithuania just cut off Kaliningrad so that's a wonderful situation to spark that. Germany has no military, sells 50% of it's GDP to the US which the US can cut off with extremely minimal impact, and is dependant on Russian Natural Gas for around 70% of it's energy production, and is currently reducing its use of Russian natural gas by using French Nuclear power as Europe figures out where to get its crude from. Biden is giving Europe the middle finger by not drilling additional fracking wells since Europe didn't want to go adventuring with us in the Middle east when they were the main recipients of middle eastern oil. There are other reasons, like frack wells being very natgas productive and we don't want to fuck up our economic lead by popping holes in the ground and venting it instead of using it. That one kinda has the US Political establishment pissed, so when the prices hit such a fervent pitch the US can either cut gas exports (which Biden can do via EO), Europe is even more fucked.
>>54154754>You're the one focusing on my degree.And yet you've made fifty posts about it and I've made three. You brought up engineering as if that made you an expert in the first place, nobody would be talking about it if you didn't start with that. The rest of your post actually looks like an argument so good job it only took you the entire thread to make one actual point but I'm sure the aspergers makes that pretty difficult so good on you anon.
>>54154813You ignored my initial arguments to focus on my degree, faggot.
>>54154765China is literally at the ass-end of the oil and natgas pipeline of the world. The reason they, the Europeans, and so many others are cranking up coal fired powerplants is to keep the lights running, but the Chinese get something like 60 or 70% fo their energy from imports. They have 90m fighting age men who won't have families that if they work hard they can transport into the middle of the fucking desert and fuck with the Iraqi's\Iranians which is another present from Uncle Biden to all. However due to the fertilizer shortages, food shortages are being projected in the middle east which means Arab Spring 2.0 and the all sorts of fun oil-related terrorism. We'll know how bad that gets in September\October when harvest occurs.China has apparently pre-staged troops near Quanzhou via all the lockdowns they had and is threatening the US To invade Taiwan if they sanction them which is exactly what the populists are saying we need to do. Meantime they are building up a maritime fleet to patrol the borders and after that bluewater destroyers with an eye on replacing the US as the worlds guarauntor of the oceans. The silk road plan only works if absolutely nothing goes wrong and there are so many major things to go wrong that they will probably collapse due to external pressure. Before then they'll likely take a swipe at Taiwan or if they can manage to field enough airplanes, Iran and Iraq. Russia seized hundreds of large 747 sized European jetliners, assuming they can source parts, I would say they'd have enough of a fleet to move millions of troops and munitions into Iran\Iraq given the Indians, Pakistani's, and Afghani's don't mind too much.
>>54154859I'm sorry but what arguments were those? Isn't this >>54152824 your first post? I don't see any arguments there. Same with this one >>54152988 where are your arguments? Saying things are fucked with no further explanation isn't an argument.
>>54154871So by Jan of next year we'll see Odessa fall and Russia try to push the Dniper, bridges will be blown, transport and logistics routes will fall apart, Russia will probably blow up a bunch of infrastructure that can't be fixed at that point and if the food shortage is going to bite next year, China will probably move shittons of troops into the middle east to try to secure it rather than attack Taiwan. I do not expect them to have good results, as they're going to draw the Ire of Turkey when they do so, and since they don't have the combined arms experience or equipment, it's going to become a massive shit show. If they attack Taiwan directly via embargo or bombardment to flatten the island, Japan is going to get involved as will Indonesia and India and the US. Japan will have deliverable nukes within a few weeks and I am beyond sure they would be more than willing to light off a small warning shot near Shanghai to inform the CCP of that fact in no uncertain terms. Taiwan likewise. That will turn into a multi-year bloody war and a US Recession for a bit but I expect under that situation the US Populists will absorb a lot of first-rate eastern european and southeast asian immigrants to build up new chip fabs and factories in short order. By the end of next year Ukraine will be a hot, expensive mess for Russia, and they will have engaged full mobilization mode with the Chinese trying to hang onto middle east oil shipments for dear life and everyone in poking holes in or engaging in piracy on oil tankers headed to China. You want a Job /k/, enroll in the phillipino navy to seize oil tankers headed to China for dem big buckaroo's. Piracy is going to come back within the decade.The biggest issue the US will have is both Russia and China are going to try to create a conflict using the Mexican cartels at home and might try doing shit like blowing up transformers on US Soil with sleeper cells. We'll have to see what goes on.
>>54150159It does until China stops doing business with us
>>54150456>Dozens of CauldronsAre Russians witches?
>>54151347Exactly, there is no need for more volunteers, Russia has all the men they need already fighting or waiting at base.
>>54150159Production capacity? It has no manpower. Who the fuck is going to fight for a NATO country?