If China was to blockade the entire SCS and capture territories all throughout the area how hard would it be for US, Japan and SK to retake the area
>>47364230Very hard. Its all about positioning now. Unless the entire American country will agree to nuclear MAD and global economic collapse.
>>47364407I support it wholeheartedly
>>47364230>start taking territories all through the regionWould be easier to counter than if they massed and focused on one or two. China’s never carried out an amphibious landing before and their amphib force is still in development. Their saving grace would be the prep work they’ve done in being able to limit outside ability to interfere.
>>47364230>blockade the entire seaThat's not how that works mate
>>47364407Sure thing Patel
>>47364230>if the impossible happens how hard would it be to undo
>>47364230They couldn't achieve that in the first place so kind of a moot question.
>>47364230>If China was to blockade the entire SCS.. with.. what exactly? Their one carrier? How long do you think they'd keep air superiority? Twenty, maybe thirty minutes?
>>47364230>If China was to blockadeThey wouldn't, they don't have enough mid sized and large surface combatants to contest the whole of the SCS and defend the rest of their coastline against counter attack.That's putting aside the fact that most of the trade going through the SCS is to and from China.>How hardJASSMs blow the gates and locks on 3GD. Wait and see how many bugs starve with a lot of farmland underwater.
>>47364230China has homefield advantage. ASBMs cover all of the SCS and its entrances and SSKs lurk everywhere while covered by air-defense that preempts ASW efforts.Still, why would China blockade the SCS? Their trade is going through those waters.If anything, it is the US who would attempt to "blockade" the SCS (it's impossible, since Japan and South Korea also rely on the waterways)
>>47365283Realistically in what possible way could the Quad or US or whoever is hypothetically fighting China rely on the ROK? My guess is they would try to stay neutral, with how close they are and actually sharing the mainland with China. That and Moon is cozying up to Xi something fierce.
>>47365283PLA doesn't have the conventional airpower to get inside the CAP bubble long enough to track targets for ASBMs, which have comparatively tiny field of vision on their terminal guidance and miss like your drunk uncle at the toilet when they lose track of where they're supposed to be going. They want to say they can do this with satellites, but this has inherent drawbacks and would probably be turned into space junk before anyone started attacking surface assets.The Russians discovered all of this when they ran their own ASBM developments. Left /k/ for like 10 years, some shit never changes. Wumaos still saying the same shit.
>>47364230They don't have the forces to do that and simultaneously defend their own shipping worldwide. Target that. Anything with a Chinese flag gets sunk until any blockade is lifted or until the Chinese Navy is forced to switch to merchant defense. Then you finish the job of sinking them.China may have strong mainland forces, but those are just as susceptible to blockade.
>>47364541China has a large fleet of tank landing ships and smaller amphibious vessels ( most likely for island hopping in the SCS and Taiwan Invasion ) and China has been rapidly building LHDs and LHAsThey also have an incredibly large fleet of frigates and FAC
>>47364852>one carrier And the dozens of man made islands covered in SAMs, airfields and wharfs
>>47365561I don't think a lot of merchant ships are going to be flying a chinese flag, a fuck ton of cargo ships are registered in Panama, so it'd be more difficult than just sinking ships witch Chinese flags.
>>47365721They have literally never once performed an amphibious landing of any scale in a conflict. Not once.
>>47365402This.My biggest concer is that China will cozy up/sequentially offend different countries in a careful order. In return, SEA countries won't collectively commit to an anti-China alliance at the same time.If united, these small countries could flog China back to the stone age. But they won't. They'll wait until things get too bad, then it'll be too late.Particularly Singapore. Yeah, that post.
>>47365771You mean less than a handful. But you know, keep lying.
>>47365402Hilarious. Korea fucking hates China. Commercial ties don't change that.
>>47366042More than you're admitting to, Chang.
>>47366059This. I never trust anybody who downplays China’s military.
>>47366059>>47366080Shut the fuck up you lying piece of shit. You literally claimed that the Chinese military has built and armed more artificial islands than it has, Just make a factually accurate statement or slit your cu t fucking throat.
>>47366059Bruh, you LITERALLY just admitted that you exaggerated the number. How lacking in self awareness are you?
>>47366095Perhaps you’re doing this in good faith, but downplaying the PLA is a bad idea and doesn’t help America or it’s allies. People need to be aware of how dangerous they are.
>>47364230Taking the SCS does not solve their short term energy needs. Unless they can take the straits which allows for their vast majority of oil to travel freely, then they won't have the ability to maintain any territorial holdings they may achieve. All the US, Japan, OR SK would have to do is defend the initial strikes and stop the oil. Within a year the CCP would be overthrown due to a lack of the basic necessities of industry.
>>47366059I wasn't that other faggot. I just know this to be true: >>47366080
>>47364230Trident launch from the Sea of Japan.
>>47365771>dozensOk and this isnt a big lake. Its the fucking ocean, thats quite the frontline to try and lock down
>>47364230China invades the South China Sea.Japan and India cut China off from oil. Japan and India wait for China to run out if oil.India performs a land invasion while Japanese F35s sink the entire Chinese fleet.China attacks a few Japanese cities with missiles hundreds of thousands die.Japan attacks the 3 Gorges Damn millions of Chinese die.China is subdivided into 3 new counties based on racial and ethnic differences.Japan becomes the superpower in the east.
>>47366391>China is subdivided into 3 new counties based on racial and ethnic differences again.Respectfully fixed.
>>47366437Thank you sir that is a proper edit.Seriously though China is too weak for America to even try. Would take us days to pacify their whole army and gain air superiority. Days...
>>47364230I think a major part of the Chinese plan is to lame US carrier groups with their fancy new standoff missiles.>>47364546Well there's actually an interesting dynamic with pacific ports in that there are very few of them.Panes can't stay airbourne forever, and neither can ships stay at sea forever- The issue is that if China denies the US navy access to strategic ports the US navy may struggle to maintain operations in the region to some extent.China already dominated global shipping and is buying ports through the OBOR program- so it's a realistic possibility that they could deny the ports diplomatically.If conflict breaks out small nations are going to realize their ports make them extremely venerable and will want out of any conflict- regardless of how many gibs they have taken already.The real issue however is the SEA shipping lanes, they are like the Suez canal in that they are very easy to deny.This would lead to an attempt to establish a land route from China to the bay of Bengal as the Japanese did in WW2- and that is what the OBOR is, the Chinese are going to take a tilt at reaching through Myanmar
>>47366700China has no natural source of oil and is not on good terms with all of the countries between it and oil. If as you said ships need oil it will not matter what ports China owns. All chinese ships will be sunk by their enemies long before they get to china.China would have the same problem as Nazi Germany. They have the means to kill, but not the means to get to the fight. This is why the Nazis relied more on horses then cars.If China starts a war with Japan who has superior ships and logistics and lots of enemies of their enemy to count on then they have 2 months to win their unwinnable war before their strategic oil reserves are depleted.2 months.Japan could beat China alone in 2 months.America doesn't have to get involved.And if America did get involved it would win in much the same way. Our nuclear fleet and incredibly large support fleet are a huge advantage we learned in fighting the Japanese Campaing of WWII.
>>47366080>never trust anybody who downplays China’s military.
>>47366391China's biggest issue has always been defending their extensive and over-populated coastline, Mao identified this in his "great push inland"- The Chinese are terrified of the east coast being shelled and the wave of refugees that would create.>South China SeaChina is actually planning to deny much of the West Phillipines Sea with forward minelaying, they have a huge mine fleet and we can expect them to use fishing ships and commercial vessels.So in all likelihood nobody is getting through.>JapanJapan is in D1 strike range so can't actually do shit, they don't have a credible second strike capacity so while they can put pressure on Chinese deployments They could only really join a war if China was already loosing.>India>land invasionIndia? India hasn't mobilized on that level before, their last war against Pakistan didn't really go as well as it should have.India will also be up against Pakistan and Chinese backed insurgents, and the Himalayas are still no joke and China has been massing forces in Tibet for decades- I suspect India would take terrible casualties in what would ultimately be an indecisive conflict.China could totally take Kolkota and cut off the Eastern states which are already semi-autonomous, and that gives China their Bengal corridor >>47366802Oil is a strategic resource, the US controlling the world oil supply means nobody can wage hegemonic war against their regional interests.Realistically China would have a window where conflict was viable, and during that time they would either do well enough to oust the US or they wouldn't.China is attempting to set up secondary supply through the new network of roads they are building westwards; that's why Iran is strategic to China.If the Persian gulf is contested of denied (China just sinks one of their ships in the middle of it and claims it was an accident) all hell with break loose.
>>47366885>Japan is in D1 strike rangeJapan doesn't need second strike you mongoloid. The USA is Japan's second strike. This is a great way for PRC to take a local territorial shitfit and turn it into a reason for the US to turn mainland China into a pin cushion of Tridents, and then throw a hundred JASSMs at 3 Gorges to put out the embers.
>>47364230It would go to the UN first, the UN would condemn it and approve military action. A coalition would form and they would spend upwards of a month building up naval forces in the region before a decisive battle. I don't believe China would win against a large enough coalition. I also don't believe they would drag a conflict out.
>>47366145Fuck off faggot. The posts you retardedly responded to didn't downplay anything. You made up shit that is false. That is precisely what happened. And when you got very easily called on the lie you panicked. If you say 'China has 10 active carriers" and some responds, "No they have less than that", then you are fucking wrong and they haven't downplayed anything.
>>47366996China has a veto on all UN resolutions just like the other Security Council members. Christ you're dumb.
>>47365534you've missed ten years of Chinese missile technology apparently while you were away
>>47366802Japan literally can't beat shit. They are more dependent then the Chinese on oil shipments, at least China is able to ship in oil through the Pakis or Russians.
>>47366885Japan is the hardest country on earth to take out with a single strike. The geography of japan is such that land travel between their cities is difficult which has lead to almost every city acting as a mini city state. Every city provides its own power, has it own water source, it's own rail system.America would struggle to take out China with air or missile strikes alone especially when American anti ballistic missile and anti missile systems are already available to most of Japan and it's holdings and it has one of the most sensitive and accurate early warning systems on earth, actually superior to the US system which relies mostly on tech from the cold war.China has a population problem. The country is far from homogeneous with a large population loyal to the form or royal family that is still alive and muslim and christian populations within its borders that neither recognize the authority of the Communist Party more agree with its methods. Most of China's valuble holdings are down river from a single extremely weak target the 3 Gorges Damn which is a weak target that could be taken out by a single plane. The majority of China's airforce is from the 1980's made up of planes known to be inferior to other aircraft of that same generation and it has no answer to modern stealth aircraft.They have an impressive array of missiles, but the oil delivery system you spoke of doesn't exist yet and likely never will as the government of China is spending 17 billion dollars a week maintaining a social welfare net that every economist on earth knows is unsustainable. The economy is in a bubble that when it collapses may very well reinstate the Imperial regime in hiding and end all of this before it comes to a head. But China doesn't have the resources to fight a land war and a naval war against 2 countries with better tech and better training. 2 months. That is all they would have.
>>47366993And get nuked themselves? People who actually think that a nuclear response is at all likely against a conventional attack are either retarded or don't understand how deterrence works. If Japan starts getting hit by conventional missiles, the US starts throwing conventional missiles back probably with aircraft. Nothing more, unless you want China and the US replaced with the EU and Russia in terms of global influence.
>>47364541>China’s never carried out an amphibious landing beforeThey did, and it was a glorious mess.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hainan_Island
>>47367056Even if the new meme missiles actually work, and fat chance there, they're gonna get knocked down by riced out X-37Bs before they can even separate. And the missiles that are actually confirmed to work have to get past some of the densest ABM setups on Earth.Yeah, Trident pincushion.
>>47367098Literally nothing you just wrote is true. Not one part. Not even the part where you downplayed US early warning systems.
>>47366993>USA is Japans second strikeI'm not sure you really get the conflict dynamics.The issue for Japan is that the US will act in the interests of the US- not to protect Japan.The US will protect Japan because it's capacity is strategically valuable- but if China destroys Japans strategic assets D1 there will be no reason for the US to defend an island full of rubble.The US and China are in a cold war scenario because China has a standoff nuclear capability, and that is why we are seeing a US-China proxy war escalate.Why did the US enter into a global proxy war with the soviet union and not just push the red button?
>>47367154The fucking state of mutts when they need to literally make up capabilities to cope with the fact that they aren't invulnerable to nuclear attack. Fucking embarrassing.
>Needing to occupy Southeast Asia when you can just continuously subvert their politics because SEAsians can't stop being self-destructively corrupt to save their lives.
>>47367169X-37Bs riced out with missiles and nuclear powered lasers are. In orbit laughing at you right now.
>>47367216Same place my fucking sides are.Thanks for the laugh, sweetie.
>>47364230China has no amphibious capability and is furthermore entirely devoid of any military experience. To suggest that they could hold their shitty artificial islands would be a joke in of it self, but actually running on the assumption that they would be able to successfully replicate the Japanese South-East Asian Campaign is so hilariously stupid that I can only assume you're a fucking wumaoIn short: I'd be surprised if half of the navy didn't mutiny the second they were ordered into actual combat
USA navy can't even cook food, what makes you think they can fight a war? The Navy is just a jobs program for diversity now. China will expand it's Navy and take whatever the fuck it wants to whenever it wants to.
>>47367021Everyone is aware of that. The Slaying of China will not be a UN branded product.
>>47364407>China gets nuked>some democrat controlled hive cities get nukedOH NO THE HUMANITY!
>>47367400I can only get so erect. Please tone it down.
>>47367400>all the humans that actually generate economic growth get nukedWithout the cities, the US is fucked.
>>473667001B1R will be a will o' the wisp if things get serious. Push the host too far and they'll get nationalized. Debt to the PRC will get canceled. The G7 and the rest of the world will laugh.
>>47367098With respect, I'm not sure you get the chronology of conflict modeling, target saturation and strategic deployment.Under most circumstances China will be forced to carry out first strike against JapanIf US carriers move to provide escort to US strategic bombers, China must deny the bombers a landing point on the other side of the pacific.Japan will either be holding up a white flag from the start and surrender or will make a suicidal first strike against China ahead of US air support- which many Japanese are grimly committed to because they still fear Chinese retaliation for their brutal campaigns against mainland China- which were more brutal than the German Eastern Front.>>47367292Keep in mind that Japan is in a real corner and they know it.They couldn't deal with long term Chinese dominance in the region, they are simply too easy to blockade if China has naval dominance and someone in the CCP says "Nanking" it would be a bloodbath.Japan may well take the suicidal step of trying to hit Chinese western air command and some naval assets and just accepting that they will be bombed back to the stone ageThey will just take whatever comes and sit underground praying the US wins or a meteor hits China.While it might be a cliche, Japanese cultural values sort of foreshadow this kind of response
>be me>be originally from the now HKDMZ>be genuinely concerned for my adopted home>despair but also despair>tfw no manportable thermonuclear deviceI would volunteer to be a "thermonuclear Uber".
>>47367056Missiles are magic!
>>47367521Your reading comprehension of my post is so hilariously bad you should probably go back to sucking off your Xi Xinping dildo
>>47367521Good syntax presenting stupid notions.I'm laughing at you.
>>47367541No, but neither are satellites, datalinks, or, according to some people, OTH radar. The difficulties you outlined were very valid ten years ago, but aren't so valid now.
>>47366234When? Last I checked they were too retarded to successfully take Kinmen, an island literally less than 2 miles from their mainland in a bay. Not very impressive.
>>47367740The army of farmers without proper ships couldn't take an island defended by a professional army? And PLA landing forces took half of Vietnam's islands back when they were fighting, which are the grounds for a good chunk of the SCS claims now.
>>47367400>some democrat controlled hive cities get nukedi'm ok with this>>47364407i'm also ok with this as well
>>47366802Look man I like the Japanese as much as the next guy but even with their solid ships and Air Force they’re outnumbered 5-1
>>47366802Japan's navy is the world 5th largest and comes nowhere close to the Chinese.
>>47367292>here are my hyperbolic assumptions and some webm of a 10 year old documentation video illustrating that multiplying speed of a amphibious tank was not a cakewalk ripped out of context for copeOkay Pajeet
>>47367573I have not laughed in a long timeWhile I tried at least six times to convey my concerns, in the past I have seen that an ideological clash exists that somehow effects the appraisal of math by both sidesTwo people throw an egg timer over the head of a third person- at what point does the person in the middle catch it?The US can't make limited naval deployments anymore, The Chinese can't get strategic air where it needs to be without facing regional powers with a D1 lame and with open diplomatic channels that's going to result in a five minute phone call between eastern command and Korea where nobody says anything
>>47368494The bulk of the Chinese navy is small craft and patrol ships. They still have 90 submarine chasers in service ffs.
>>47369593The Chinese have to protect their global shipping dominance from pirates.The word "pirate" has a very specific anti-imperial connotation in China, and they view the the US navy in the same way the British east India company was seen, and their understanding of US gunboat diplomacy is intertwined with their views of the drug trade and the global banking network.Keep in mind the US only recently just stole an entire ship full of Iranian oil that was in international waters, and there were uh...a couple of Chinese ships that just kinda caught fire in the south China region.Insuring ships costs a lot more if you.A lot of the crafts are I believe for minelaying, because the concerns is that pirates may just bring larger boats
>>47366034>China never took controll of Hainan, Yijiangshan, Paracel, Johnson South Reef from the ROC and Vietnam>>47366802>The Tarim and Yangtze river basin have no oil reserves unlike say Japan>China is not on good terms with Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakstan>China has no means to get near Chinas coastline where 99% of Japans oil supplies run by>>47367098>japan with its entire economy concentrated around a handfull overpopulated cities on a tiny island covered by every neighbouring countries mid range land based missiles makes it the hardest country to take out with a single strike in terms of geography>>47367292>China has no battle experience from fighting Japan in WW2, fighting and pushing the ROC out of Chinese mainland and islands till the 70s, fighting NATO in Korea, fighting poos in Tibet every 10 years in Tibet, fighting gooks in Vietnam and South China sea>>47366391>India cut China off from oil>India performs a land invasionI know this is a currynigger larp thread and making up shit and talking from your ass is the norm but you 5 Rupee shills are getting ridiculous with the cope posts
>>47366051Do they hate them as much as Japan?
>>47364230They're not going to attempt to blockade the SCS, they're preparing to break out of any blockade the US imposes, and they're most crucially trying to create the conditions for their SSBNs to slip out of the SCS into the the world's oceans for deterrence patrols (which would be all but guaranteed if they controlled Taiwan).
>>47364230They can't, they won't, and even if they did the Japanese proved pretty well how absolutely stupid it is to hold onto islands in the ocean.
>>47364230the 5th aircraft to land on that will crash and sink the ship
>>47370175He said, after randomly spotting the Japanese carriers while eating popcorn
>>47364230It’d be easy as fuck.