What would´ve been the long term consequences of this alternate WW1 if it had happened?
Picrel would be what the world would have looked like
>>12105425why was bismarck so dumb? he always made a deal with austohungarians which were a decadent empire? not even himself was a RealPolitik strategos after all, always with his 5D Chess bullshit meanwhile all he had to do was to make an alliance with Italy and Russia (without the A-H empire)
>>12105640I thought Bismarck always wanted to keep an alliance with Russia and never wanted any grossdeutschland bullshit but the Kaisers' autism ruined his plans
>>12105723>and never wanted any grossdeutschland bullshithe had the perfect excuse to not have an alliance with the austrian nevertheless, a puppet of austria if you don´t want to annex the land, it would´ve collapse anyway
>>12105640The Fall of Austria Hungary would make Russia to strong, as the new Slavic regions would be naturally shifted toward becoming their protectorate. While Bismark did seek good relations with Russia, the looming threat of a signficantly empowered Russia next to Berlin was to much to ignore.
>>12105771the only territorial concessions that the Russian Empire had was Constantinople aside from that, there weren´t any territorial issues between them, in fact both had large polish minority so even if Russia dominated the balkans, it would hardly be a threat to the northern-western european domain for Germanythe issue with AH could be solve with a diplomatic conference, better to keep your enemy closely rather than to actively antagonize with them like they did in real life
>>12105771Not necesarily. Russia would still have a lot of internal problems and minorities (more in this case).
>>12105640Russia has always been contained by her geography. If the Austrians were to collapse, Russia would be able to move into the Balkans without major resistance, and the Russians would be let out of their bottle. On top of that, Austria-Hungary forms an enormous border and front with the Germans. Unless the Germans could in good confidence defeat the Austrians within a few months and keep them under control, then being enemies with Austria-Hungary is a terrible idea. Ideally you don't want either of these powers defeating the other, as they are both major threats to Germany in their own right without the other to counterbalance it.
>>12106201>On top of that, Austria-Hungary forms an enormous border and front with the Germans. Unless the Germans could in good confidence defeat the Austrians within a few months and keep them under control, then being enemies with Austria-Hungary is a terrible idea.that´s why you want to have Russia and Italy to your side, heck you can Romania, Serbia-Montenegro to pick up their corpse toobut you´re right about Russia and his geography but i can´t conceived Russia wanting to take german land, they already had so many minorities into their realm (arguably one of the biggest reasons why the AH was in their decaden state)
>Germany allying with Russiait's just not conceivable
>>12106217>that´s why you want to have Russia and Italy to your sideThe issue is even with them on your side, the Germans were of the opinion that the Russian mobilization would be incredibly slow. The Austrians wouldn't have made a formidable enemy, but they would have made an enormous thorn in Germany's side, even after defeat. An important thing to also note, France was already getting close to Russia well before WWI started. Both Germany and France would have had to jockey for Russian influence, which would just contribute to the fear of Russia getting let lose from its geography. >I can´t conceived Russia wanting to take german land, they already had so many minorities into their realmYou have to understand that Bismarck was around during the era of cabinet wars. If Russia felt Germany needed to be cut down to size, it would. Of course, WWI changed everything, but Bismarck wasn't around during WWI.
>>12105375>Germany dissolves its only major ally while antagonizing all of EuropeWW2 breaks out in 15 years and Germany is overwhelmed and broken up.
You are underestimating the importance of nationalism at the time. Austrians are also German, therefore preferable to Russians. It's stupid to us, but it's how a German would think at the time.
>>12106386>antagonizing all of Europei don´t think so, the only ones getting butthurted are going to be Hungary, France, England and the Ottomans
>>12106391the Austrian Empire was a meltiing plot and many Germans wanted to create the Greater Germany
>Germany annexing any territory from Mainland FranceWrong. Germany offered peace deals, where they wouldn't annex any french lands, specifically to placate Britain, they wouldn't even be able to invade, even in a WW1 victory scenario.>Ireland gaining independence and northern irelandUnlikely. How? Germany wouldn't supply them with weapons to not antagonize Britain.>Germany not annexing Bohemia, when winning a war against AustriaIt was part of the German Bund. The successor organisation of the HRE. Of course they would have annexed it given how thoroughly germanized it was and how used to German rule the Czechs are.>Italy getting SloveniaSame situation. Slovenians are very used to German (Austrian) Rule. And they are geopolitical important for Germany to get a port down there. Germany would prefer an independent Slovenia as buffer state, which would offer Germany port access.>Germany supporting such extreme serbian expansionism, especially into slavic areas that were culturally very germanized like Slovenia and CroatiaThey both would hate that shit and petition to Germany to free them.>Italy annexing stuff from FranceGo ahead and watch them demolish your entire Empire later. Italy will pay for that dearly.
>>12107719>Germany would prefer an independent Slovenia as buffer state, which would offer Germany port access.if it wasn't viable to just annex the area that is, which they would have preferred obviously
>>12105640>Why didn't Bismarck just use the hindsight of the 21st century to make his decisionsAustria-Hungary's weakness wasn't as apparent at the time. The notion that all the empire was a massive instable powder keg and all the empire's minorities were just barely contained is the result of post WWI hindsight and the search of a founding myth in Balkan historiography. Most minorities were content with imperial rule and supported the Habsburgs. The empire would've seemed stable enough outside of recently annexed Bosnia.It wasn't until WW1 started that it became apparent just how backwards the imperial and royal army actually was.
>>12105771>the new Slavic regions would be naturally shifted toward becoming their protectorateImplying
>>12105771>Slavic Unity TheoryIt's wrong. It never existed. That concept was just perpetuated by Russia to justify its imperial ambitions. Slaves more than any other ethnic meta group like Germanics for example are much more dividided. Because they really isn't a "slavic race". There is a slavic culture and language that spread, but not really much of a race. S
>>12108189>Austria-Hungary's weakness wasn't as apparent at the timeof course it washttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Revolution_of_1848they even had to ask Russia to intervene because they couldn´t do it themselves
>>12105375The Austrians aren't dumb enough to get caught between both Imperial Germany and Tsarist Russia.
>>12108305there´s nothing they can do about it, sure they can ally themselves with France and the Ottomans but they will lose the war anyway
>>12108311If Austria were caught between them they'd just hand over whatever R&G asked for in return for an alliance rather than get raped through warfare.
>>12108330better yet, at least central europe will be stabilized